{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa36de99-a01e-4962-9b41-723d6e404d50", "symbol": "ALSPW", "name": "Spineway SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.303, "architecture_energy": 18.185, "architecture_maturity": 70.67, "architecture_confidence": 73.186, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.86, "rotation_up": 32.16, "upward_expansion": 20.0, "deceleration": 43.55, "rotation_down": 22.99, "downward_expansion": 54.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.136733, 0.134113, 0.135993, 0.141102 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.1382, "trend_reference": 0.148727, "distance_from_trend": -0.070779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.905065, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.990061, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.999956, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.219209, "excess_performance": -0.27252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056183, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.990061, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00835, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122441, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.850969, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 889327, "relative_activity": 1.992749, "balance": 0.850969, "dry_up": 1.027075, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103306, "annualized_volatility": 0.475682, "from_high_reference": -0.460156, "from_low_reference": 0.151667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.148727, "fair_value_reference": 13.905065, "structural_low": 0.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.219685, "positive_rate": 0.212766, "directional_follow_through": 0.723404, "median_excess_return": -0.213405, "regime_survival": 0.957447, "best_return": 2.205882, "worst_return": -0.917431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.32208, "regime_survival": 0.933333, "best_return": 0.394967, "worst_return": -0.919118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.826076, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.833562, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.407002, "worst_return": -0.983535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.832384, "energy": 46.78385, "activity_lines": [ 0.12904, 0.129687, 0.138138, 0.144678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1312, "volume": 204440, "typical_volume": 460623.35, "trend": 0.151533, "fair_value": 22.934435, "relative_strength": -13.729632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.939602, "energy": 31.571714, "activity_lines": [ 0.130227, 0.129462, 0.136872, 0.143349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.145, "volume": 368073, "typical_volume": 442144.25, "trend": 0.151067, "fair_value": 19.56998, "relative_strength": -5.22653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.068483, "energy": 20.839487, "activity_lines": [ 0.135507, 0.13204, 0.137058, 0.142927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.135, "volume": 371619, "typical_volume": 443313.0, "trend": 0.150433, "fair_value": 16.551615, "relative_strength": -13.033082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.277287, "energy": 20.286543, "activity_lines": [ 0.135987, 0.132749, 0.136329, 0.141891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1382, "volume": 889327, "typical_volume": 446281.55, "trend": 0.148727, "fair_value": 13.905065, "relative_strength": -12.999956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.303404, "energy": 18.184515, "activity_lines": [ 0.136733, 0.134113, 0.135993, 0.141102 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }