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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.86, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.403, "architecture_energy": 42.973, "architecture_maturity": 16.662, "architecture_confidence": 66.077, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.18, "rotation_up": 61.11, "upward_expansion": 80.23, "deceleration": 57.3, "rotation_down": 17.82, "downward_expansion": 4.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.43496, 113.868525, 112.603694, 111.986365 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 115.5789, "trend_reference": 111.36958, "distance_from_trend": 0.037796, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 101.482357, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138906, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.286972, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024738, "excess_performance": -0.162715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037796, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038801, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.138906, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014589, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07287, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072726, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024738, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544948, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8023, "relative_activity": 1.004985, "balance": 0.544948, "dry_up": 1.126491, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025326, "annualized_volatility": 0.146086, "from_high_reference": -0.013664, "from_low_reference": 0.184889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 111.36958, "fair_value_reference": 101.482357, "structural_low": 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"activity_lines": [ 113.440548, 112.325517, 111.351372, 110.985088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 114.0405, "volume": 12956, "typical_volume": 8117.1, "trend": 110.129627, "fair_value": 100.926557, "relative_strength": -5.798014, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.056458, "energy": 65.67386, "activity_lines": [ 113.799365, 112.744301, 111.647812, 111.264638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 112.6711, "volume": 6887, "typical_volume": 8177.55, "trend": 110.492244, "fair_value": 101.099551, "relative_strength": -5.137291, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.285441, "energy": 54.817146, "activity_lines": [ 113.658187, 112.867224, 111.827172, 111.428604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 114.53, "volume": 8106, "typical_volume": 8027.1, "trend": 110.971352, "fair_value": 101.290034, "relative_strength": -3.794451, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.442375, "energy": 41.029655, "activity_lines": [ 113.93496, 113.304312, 112.173706, 111.689104 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 115.5789, "volume": 8023, "typical_volume": 7983.2, "trend": 111.36958, "fair_value": 101.482357, "relative_strength": -7.286972, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.402554, "energy": 42.973253, "activity_lines": [ 114.43496, 113.868525, 112.603694, 111.986365 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }