{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa3861dd-86cf-4c64-ac4d-fb9f87ccc611", "symbol": "MMLP", "name": "Alerian Midstream Energy Dividend UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.277, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.517, "architecture_energy": 34.275, "architecture_maturity": 32.568, "architecture_confidence": 64.384, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.06, "rotation_up": 47.42, "upward_expansion": 74.59, "deceleration": 63.07, "rotation_down": 23.95, "downward_expansion": 5.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.295867, 18.253486, 18.032841, 17.781574 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.676001, "trend_reference": 17.252134, "distance_from_trend": 0.024569, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.85561, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.062051, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.14461, "excess_performance": -0.026282, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024569, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089185, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275729, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023048, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040621, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055178, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14461, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.94618, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6256, "relative_activity": 0.365487, "balance": 2.94618, "dry_up": 1.160564, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044257, "annualized_volatility": 0.259288, "from_high_reference": -0.081384, "from_low_reference": 0.335143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.252134, "fair_value_reference": 13.85561, "structural_low": 15.371338, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.016908, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007657, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.11307, "worst_return": -0.128544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.051807, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.003165, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.289157, "worst_return": -0.092124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.115202, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.037667, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.221398, "worst_return": -0.108887, "sufficient": true }, { 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13.695088, "relative_strength": 5.961845, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.457079, "energy": 52.012206, "activity_lines": [ 18.300667, 18.145265, 17.869183, 17.518304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.08, "volume": 45136, "typical_volume": 18143.25, "trend": 16.988884, "fair_value": 13.753673, "relative_strength": 7.396537, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.980681, "energy": 62.603126, "activity_lines": [ 18.6112, 18.326158, 18.00172, 17.664461 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.256001, "volume": 17103, "typical_volume": 17899.6, "trend": 17.127859, "fair_value": 13.806541, "relative_strength": 2.022743, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.61032, "energy": 51.903233, "activity_lines": [ 18.548267, 18.340155, 18.046998, 17.74621 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.676001, "volume": 6256, "typical_volume": 17116.9, "trend": 17.252134, "fair_value": 13.85561, "relative_strength": -4.062051, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.516512, "energy": 34.274859, "activity_lines": [ 18.295867, 18.253486, 18.032841, 17.781574 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }