{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa3ee672-dfe9-481f-b8c0-1fba86d8f50e", "symbol": "EAH", "name": "ECO Animal Health Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.296, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.252, "architecture_energy": 17.037, "architecture_maturity": 14.115, "architecture_confidence": 56.837, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.72, "rotation_up": 42.71, "upward_expansion": 35.13, "deceleration": 41.3, "rotation_down": 20.66, "downward_expansion": 45.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.972333, 0.947091, 0.942905, 0.952527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.985, "trend_reference": 0.977167, "distance_from_trend": 0.008016, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.912385, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079589, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.41213, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.108597, "excess_performance": -0.159833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008016, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079589, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029645, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09048, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108597, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.313153, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 797227, "relative_activity": 1.604272, "balance": 0.313153, "dry_up": 2.618691, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062019, "annualized_volatility": 0.42053, "from_high_reference": -0.157399, "from_low_reference": 0.368056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.977167, "fair_value_reference": 0.912385, "structural_low": 0.8516, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.018943, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.002959, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.324324, "worst_return": -0.156164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.037736, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.029657, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.204918, "worst_return": -0.154889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.046099, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028696, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.540984, "worst_return": -0.58088, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.081081, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.102989, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.565574, "worst_return": -0.692187, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.21134, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117117, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.190789, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065574, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055901, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013423, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.197279, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15736, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", 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0.941167, 0.963559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.88, "volume": 790985, "typical_volume": 298183.25, "trend": 0.985, "fair_value": 0.91591, "relative_strength": -9.970168, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.731821, "energy": 53.702778, "activity_lines": [ 0.905, 0.918636, 0.933929, 0.956376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.875, "volume": 1383188, "typical_volume": 356139.9, "trend": 0.981667, "fair_value": 0.914372, "relative_strength": -11.224408, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.473914, "energy": 56.738818, "activity_lines": [ 0.894667, 0.908091, 0.926929, 0.94928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.01, "volume": 1429523, "typical_volume": 404166.55, "trend": 0.9825, "fair_value": 0.913763, "relative_strength": 0.951925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.281648, "energy": 9.81698, "activity_lines": [ 0.932333, 0.923818, 0.933643, 0.951108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.0, "volume": 1595391, "typical_volume": 468941.95, "trend": 0.9805, "fair_value": 0.913122, "relative_strength": -1.461181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.133406, "energy": 11.309583, "activity_lines": [ 0.958667, 0.937091, 0.939, 0.952237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.985, "volume": 797227, "typical_volume": 496939.95, "trend": 0.977167, "fair_value": 0.912385, "relative_strength": -3.41213, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.252321, "energy": 17.037404, "activity_lines": [ 0.972333, 0.947091, 0.942905, 0.952527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }