{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa474c0b-212d-4a99-be37-141c4cd6ad17", "symbol": "ARVEN", "name": "Arverne Group S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.149, "architecture_energy": 22.975, "architecture_maturity": 87.048, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.49, "rotation_up": 30.79, "upward_expansion": 57.47, "deceleration": 87.52, "rotation_down": 26.32, "downward_expansion": 18.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.225333, 8.309091, 8.089857, 7.472581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.96, "trend_reference": 6.653333, "distance_from_trend": 0.196393, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.248699, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273865, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.696542, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.576238, "excess_performance": 0.522926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.196393, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.207502, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273865, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.294152, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.246965, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042305, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.576238, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.721997, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16035, "relative_activity": 0.458588, "balance": 3.721997, "dry_up": 0.564934, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15056, "annualized_volatility": 0.59737, "from_high_reference": -0.368254, "from_low_reference": 0.745614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.653333, "fair_value_reference": 6.248699, "structural_low": 4.64, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014423, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.197952, "worst_return": -0.142723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.036697, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.030506, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.525597, "worst_return": -0.132207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.06993, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.122144, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.066465, "worst_return": -0.073394, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.255136, "energy": 42.338359, "activity_lines": [ 8.434667, 8.518545, 7.650762, 6.987161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.94, "volume": 18536, "typical_volume": 34018.1, "trend": 6.344667, "fair_value": 6.28434, "relative_strength": 49.477754, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.77896, "energy": 38.988618, "activity_lines": [ 8.612, 8.630182, 7.849143, 7.163333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.18, "volume": 25739, "typical_volume": 35068.7, "trend": 6.450667, "fair_value": 6.273314, "relative_strength": 35.088856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.327597, "energy": 35.467912, "activity_lines": [ 8.498667, 8.554545, 7.956381, 7.281742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.0, "volume": 18704, "typical_volume": 35691.9, "trend": 6.551333, "fair_value": 6.261135, "relative_strength": 29.144462, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.238501, "energy": 32.450232, "activity_lines": [ 8.378667, 8.425091, 8.03181, 7.381699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.96, "volume": 16035, "typical_volume": 34966.05, "trend": 6.653333, "fair_value": 6.248699, "relative_strength": 24.696542, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.149078, "energy": 22.975252, "activity_lines": [ 8.225333, 8.309091, 8.089857, 7.472581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }