{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa4822c5-455a-4f18-a675-98a3b036241c", "symbol": "TEMBO", "name": "Tembo Global Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.952, "architecture_energy": 15.441, "architecture_maturity": 29.044, "architecture_confidence": 87.592, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.82, "rotation_up": 34.26, "upward_expansion": 47.65, "deceleration": 81.12, "rotation_down": 26.15, "downward_expansion": 27.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.689668, 56.31391, 57.159406, 56.552581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 60.950001, "trend_reference": 56.0285, "distance_from_trend": 0.087839, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.315223, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.315982, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.084726, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.065001, "excess_performance": 0.10871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087839, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077552, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.315982, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030847, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065001, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.158413, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32037230, "relative_activity": 3.52979, "balance": 1.158413, "dry_up": 1.502049, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09309, "annualized_volatility": 0.379546, "from_high_reference": -0.27053, "from_low_reference": 0.406484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.0285, "fair_value_reference": 46.315223, "structural_low": 43.334999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033498, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.022297, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.590218, "worst_return": -0.148568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.327961, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.35726, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.693353, "worst_return": -0.337111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.66261, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.63676, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.315131, "worst_return": -0.472955, "sufficient": false }, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.219675, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.123909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045753, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027847, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122821, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.037887, "energy": 19.67945, "activity_lines": [ 56.195334, 57.218456, 57.213572, 56.671354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.720001, "volume": 5888900, "typical_volume": 7451484.5, "trend": 56.662519, "fair_value": 45.65332, "relative_strength": -5.812163, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.082009, "energy": 19.225787, "activity_lines": [ 55.779001, 56.601365, 57.087096, 56.50813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.040001, "volume": 4870460, "typical_volume": 7514519.0, "trend": 56.070813, "fair_value": 45.852844, "relative_strength": -6.692749, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.545751, "energy": 26.500396, "activity_lines": [ 54.808668, 55.785183, 56.793596, 56.27442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.325001, "volume": 11735260, "typical_volume": 7714649.0, "trend": 55.892684, "fair_value": 46.067899, "relative_strength": -5.312891, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.181138, "energy": 24.15294, "activity_lines": [ 54.808001, 55.467546, 56.718786, 56.226303 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.950001, "volume": 32037230, "typical_volume": 9076243.0, "trend": 56.0285, "fair_value": 46.315223, "relative_strength": 3.084726, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.951945, "energy": 15.440558, "activity_lines": [ 56.689668, 56.31391, 57.159406, 56.552581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }