{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa48e5cd-8ce0-443b-a13a-1660378af6c6", "symbol": "002390", "name": "Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.576, "architecture_energy": 23.69, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.782, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.01, "rotation_up": 38.48, "upward_expansion": 20.75, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 20.35, "downward_expansion": 54.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.975333, 2.897636, 2.946332, 3.012035 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.04, "trend_reference": 3.097481, "distance_from_trend": -0.018557, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.589854, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.153169, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.630893, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.077726, "excess_performance": -0.085126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018557, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07023, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.153169, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03507, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116309, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120406, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077726, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.884045, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121133152, "relative_activity": 1.073182, "balance": 0.884045, "dry_up": 1.315925, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060074, "annualized_volatility": 0.269841, "from_high_reference": -0.253292, "from_low_reference": 0.173745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.097481, "fair_value_reference": 3.589854, "structural_low": 2.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.486486, "directional_follow_through": 0.486486, "median_excess_return": -0.004807, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.239131, "worst_return": -0.267442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.02257, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 6.1e-05, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.182678, "worst_return": -0.14115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.032217, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065774, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.201048, "worst_return": -0.231343, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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106250023, "typical_volume": 114685889.0, "trend": 3.101443, "fair_value": 3.5979, "relative_strength": -9.290354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.941518, "energy": 23.378787, "activity_lines": [ 2.923333, 2.866182, 2.944217, 3.015999 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.04, "volume": 121133152, "typical_volume": 112872906.45, "trend": 3.097481, "fair_value": 3.589854, "relative_strength": -11.630893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.575695, "energy": 23.69002, "activity_lines": [ 2.975333, 2.897636, 2.946332, 3.012035 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }