{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa4e1983-d4af-4be5-a48b-f72d6cf6e7fd", "symbol": "EMV", "name": "iShares Edge MSCI EM Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.538, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.664, "architecture_energy": 27.293, "architecture_maturity": 64.531, "architecture_confidence": 77.165, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.37, "rotation_up": 26.51, "upward_expansion": 58.83, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 32.26, "downward_expansion": 20.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.593667, 39.018363, 38.659619, 37.763452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 39.185001, "trend_reference": 36.651, "distance_from_trend": 0.069139, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.05218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.222538, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.660801, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125197, "excess_performance": -0.045694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069139, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059155, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.222538, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008892, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036608, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03733, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125197, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731669, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10450, "relative_activity": 1.318105, "balance": 0.731669, "dry_up": 1.858938, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033804, "annualized_volatility": 0.175322, "from_high_reference": -0.040994, "from_low_reference": 0.23651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.651, "fair_value_reference": 32.05218, "structural_low": 32.654999, "invalidation": "A 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"2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056925, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012005, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010106, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033384, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.685448, "energy": 49.593268, "activity_lines": [ 39.301999, 39.354636, 38.285738, 37.323667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.68, "volume": 6977, "typical_volume": 6595.3, "trend": 36.3195, "fair_value": 31.91641, "relative_strength": -1.649408, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.281141, "energy": 36.572614, "activity_lines": [ 38.960999, 39.273272, 38.44169, 37.488559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.869999, "volume": 30644, "typical_volume": 7800.5, "trend": 36.474667, "fair_value": 31.979038, "relative_strength": -4.232626, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.319684, "energy": 26.770238, "activity_lines": [ 38.488333, 39.023636, 38.497524, 37.588591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.185001, "volume": 10450, "typical_volume": 7928.05, "trend": 36.651, "fair_value": 32.05218, "relative_strength": -3.660801, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.66385, "energy": 27.292858, "activity_lines": [ 38.593667, 39.018363, 38.659619, 37.763452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }