{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "aa57ad6c-22ec-4bcb-b82b-633ea588b2f1",
    "symbol": "PLUG",
    "name": "Plug Power Inc.",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 93.059,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -31.157,
    "architecture_energy": 60.496,
    "architecture_maturity": 19.637,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.51,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 18.73,
        "rotation_up": 14.65,
        "upward_expansion": 28.15,
        "deceleration": 49.94,
        "rotation_down": 74.72,
        "downward_expansion": 60.15
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.851973,
        2.002765,
        2.315854,
        2.298582
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 1.8406,
    "trend_reference": 2.218837,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.170466,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 2.552676,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.278953,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -28.92515,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.075997,
    "excess_performance": -0.09825,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.170466,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042009,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.278953,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.126962,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.289251,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.559938,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.075997,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.817569,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 28637,
      "relative_activity": 0.422348,
      "balance": 0.817569,
      "dry_up": 0.922448,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.179064,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.716982,
      "from_high_reference": -0.538986,
      "from_low_reference": 0.529754
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2.218837,
      "fair_value_reference": 2.552676,
      "structural_low": 1.4434,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.007531,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.041344,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.250695,
        "worst_return": -0.226013,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.003705,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005552,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.242555,
        "worst_return": -0.555358,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.130904,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.313044,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.086947,
        "worst_return": -0.481009,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.108767,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.253049,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.021204,
        "worst_return": -0.238737,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.157787,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.152443,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.2,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.438696,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-26",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.066084,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.115371,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.059628,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.247518,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.077163,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.249074,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.094176,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-15",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.214983,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.144073,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.020541,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 7.96,
        "volume": 6002,
        "typical_volume": 4958.2,
        "trend": 10.2073,
        "fair_value": 20.797577,
        "relative_strength": -41.757217,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -48.592624,
        "energy": 29.364901,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.1246,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-01",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
        "close": 7.03,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 2.824612,
        "relative_strength": -10.029602,
        "stage": 1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 1.9726,
        "volume": 184469,
        "typical_volume": 84393.95,
        "trend": 2.216937,
        "fair_value": 2.766391,
        "relative_strength": -22.197749,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.959186,
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        "activity_lines": [
          2.206133,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 1.91,
        "volume": 83608,
        "typical_volume": 82698.35,
        "trend": 2.218197,
        "fair_value": 2.706423,
        "relative_strength": -23.060794,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.171237,
        "energy": 40.253382,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.085593,
          2.341989,
          2.485504,
          2.373069
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.8792,
        "volume": 75738,
        "typical_volume": 70376.1,
        "trend": 2.223423,
        "fair_value": 2.649847,
        "relative_strength": -25.208448,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.534523,
        "energy": 58.43397,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.986953,
          2.212478,
          2.432931,
          2.351199
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.7866,
        "volume": 62201,
        "typical_volume": 69195.1,
        "trend": 2.219337,
        "fair_value": 2.59239,
        "relative_strength": -28.915153,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -38.160445,
        "energy": 65.30584,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.895633,
          2.088755,
          2.371567,
          2.323017
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.8406,
        "volume": 28637,
        "typical_volume": 67804.35,
        "trend": 2.218837,
        "fair_value": 2.552676,
        "relative_strength": -28.92515,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.156863,
        "energy": 60.495883,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.851973,
          2.002765,
          2.315854,
          2.298582
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}