{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa58eced-296d-4d77-842f-4fd4f2eabf0f", "symbol": "BZU", "name": "Buzzi S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.454, "architecture_energy": 80.063, "architecture_maturity": 13.341, "architecture_confidence": 76.795, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.06, "rotation_up": 8.26, "upward_expansion": 18.43, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 79.2, "downward_expansion": 94.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.403332, 42.904727, 44.193571, 44.621156 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 41.279999, "trend_reference": 45.450745, "distance_from_trend": -0.091764, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.241827, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051939, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.492948, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.150139, "excess_performance": -0.324386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091764, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048612, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051939, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223138, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141661, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150139, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.871711, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.871711, "dry_up": 0.351199, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050211, "annualized_volatility": 0.331383, "from_high_reference": -0.233416, "from_low_reference": 0.018254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.450745, "fair_value_reference": 39.241827, "structural_low": 40.540001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.029623, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.005096, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.131058, "worst_return": -0.13825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02009, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036372, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.270369, "worst_return": -0.150819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.063383, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.100741, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.554266, "worst_return": -0.203814, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045415, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.147925, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013437, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113472, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049116, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", 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"relative_strength": -28.345635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.869533, "energy": 74.977153, "activity_lines": [ 42.838666, 44.169272, 44.918049, 45.243907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.009998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 336.85, "trend": 45.802451, "fair_value": 39.150303, "relative_strength": -27.260895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.644988, "energy": 79.727567, "activity_lines": [ 41.918665, 43.485272, 44.541354, 44.912927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.279999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 327.45, "trend": 45.450745, "fair_value": 39.241827, "relative_strength": -28.492948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.453853, "energy": 80.063395, "activity_lines": [ 41.403332, 42.904727, 44.193571, 44.621156 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }