{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa59b9ac-4400-4aac-b9fd-451314ef57b8", "symbol": "TIP1S", "name": "UBS Core BBG TIPS 1-10 UCITS ETF hCHFacc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.871, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.407, "architecture_energy": 57.669, "architecture_maturity": 14.783, "architecture_confidence": 89.413, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.52, "rotation_up": 14.95, "upward_expansion": 11.72, "deceleration": 40.78, "rotation_down": 64.91, "downward_expansion": 87.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.712833, 11.734291, 11.775355, 11.799798 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.711, "trend_reference": 11.826717, "distance_from_trend": -0.009784, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.74113, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002566, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.232826, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012605, "excess_performance": -0.095488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009784, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004025, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002566, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016714, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012605, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.032566, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43394, "relative_activity": 0.815182, "balance": 1.032566, "dry_up": 0.50553, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006769, "annualized_volatility": 0.025783, "from_high_reference": -0.031308, "from_low_reference": 0.002955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.826717, "fair_value_reference": 11.74113, "structural_low": 11.6765, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.002586, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.002685, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.032768, "worst_return": -0.030333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002443, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.007698, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.03436, "worst_return": -0.057367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00981, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02026, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.026917, "worst_return": -0.059284, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.217781, "energy": 57.779773, "activity_lines": [ 11.763333, 11.783427, 11.816038, 11.831203 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.7635, "volume": 16451, "typical_volume": 54036.85, "trend": 11.841017, "fair_value": 11.739345, "relative_strength": -10.647196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.340669, "energy": 48.120056, "activity_lines": [ 11.761667, 11.775964, 11.80891, 11.825949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.7, "volume": 33369, "typical_volume": 54285.05, "trend": 11.8367, "fair_value": 11.739729, "relative_strength": -10.698592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.373099, "energy": 58.663572, "activity_lines": [ 11.740267, 11.759436, 11.796607, 11.816852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.6925, "volume": 14428, "typical_volume": 51847.6, "trend": 11.831133, "fair_value": 11.740156, "relative_strength": -10.5213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.872638, "energy": 63.291685, "activity_lines": [ 11.720367, 11.7443, 11.784629, 11.807548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.711, "volume": 43394, "typical_volume": 53232.3, "trend": 11.826717, "fair_value": 11.74113, "relative_strength": -11.232826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.407276, "energy": 57.668699, "activity_lines": [ 11.712833, 11.734291, 11.775355, 11.799798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }