{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa5d3ece-b0c8-43dd-b9c9-d7c2a4e2ae4c", "symbol": "605016", "name": "Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.716, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.016, "architecture_energy": 73.764, "architecture_maturity": 16.291, "architecture_confidence": 81.264, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.91, "rotation_up": 9.14, "upward_expansion": 16.47, "deceleration": 37.24, "rotation_down": 75.99, "downward_expansion": 92.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.674667, 22.670364, 23.959717, 24.352718 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.33, "trend_reference": 24.478919, "distance_from_trend": -0.128638, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.654882, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208164, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.578985, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.149087, "excess_performance": -0.105883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128638, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037388, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208164, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.451567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05579, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219123, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149087, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.4208, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22864981, "relative_activity": 1.063831, "balance": 0.4208, "dry_up": 1.272373, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097661, "annualized_volatility": 0.351497, "from_high_reference": -0.26225, "from_low_reference": 0.147877 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.478919, "fair_value_reference": 17.654882, "structural_low": 20.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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25.235919, 25.513767, 25.178037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.02, "volume": 20289592, "typical_volume": 20362424.55, "trend": 24.411997, "fair_value": 17.4584, "relative_strength": 0.145015, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.645989, "energy": 27.745419, "activity_lines": [ 24.390667, 24.74959, 25.288625, 25.093939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.5, "volume": 22898651, "typical_volume": 19930772.65, "trend": 24.459675, "fair_value": 17.505087, "relative_strength": -0.597581, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.117989, "energy": 51.811659, "activity_lines": [ 23.330667, 24.059525, 24.925963, 24.906068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.549999, "volume": 23385459, "typical_volume": 19900620.35, "trend": 24.46398, "fair_value": 17.557026, "relative_strength": -1.475125, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.367979, "energy": 61.587815, "activity_lines": [ 22.536, 23.492003, 24.584671, 24.718347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.950001, "volume": 40239687, "typical_volume": 21096075.65, "trend": 24.483273, "fair_value": 17.606451, "relative_strength": -0.117412, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.011352, "energy": 61.792271, "activity_lines": [ 22.114667, 23.097648, 24.29652, 24.556154 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.33, "volume": 22864981, "typical_volume": 21493066.5, "trend": 24.478919, "fair_value": 17.654882, "relative_strength": -5.578985, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.015638, "energy": 73.763534, "activity_lines": [ 21.674667, 22.670364, 23.959717, 24.352718 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }