{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa68981f-8bc3-42bc-9131-eb82bc0388c1", "symbol": "TLF", "name": "Brompton Tech Leaders Income ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.342, "architecture_energy": 27.225, "architecture_maturity": 70.73, "architecture_confidence": 91.349, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.3, "rotation_up": 26.9, "upward_expansion": 59.21, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 31.25, "downward_expansion": 20.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.624105, 33.09999, 32.719489, 31.370553 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.360001, "trend_reference": 29.74268, "distance_from_trend": 0.121621, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.228966, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.436138, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.723379, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.263483, "excess_performance": 0.143061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121621, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082682, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.436138, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019198, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057234, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039525, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.263483, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.506303, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9500, "relative_activity": 0.880853, "balance": 1.506303, "dry_up": 1.251739, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051047, "annualized_volatility": 0.251175, "from_high_reference": -0.064969, "from_low_reference": 0.398698 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.74268, "fair_value_reference": 23.228966, "structural_low": 23.895176, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052155, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.039432, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.131363, "worst_return": -0.024084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050261, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.014652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086583, "worst_return": -0.175151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.09149, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.010083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233272, "worst_return": -0.06357, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092298, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.11562, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.146154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056603, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.084865, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 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33.549378, 32.430537, 30.028769, 29.030325 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 35.677963, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 13115.0, "trend": 28.29941, "fair_value": 22.495714, "relative_strength": 18.342753, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.62143, "energy": 88.214924, "activity_lines": [ 34.355589, 33.243046, 30.70893, 29.52846 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 33.559608, "volume": 9100, "typical_volume": 11895.0, "trend": 28.530746, "fair_value": 22.604716, "relative_strength": 11.132108, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.430734, "energy": 66.246904, "activity_lines": [ 34.217273, 33.50602, 31.147227, 29.867827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 33.83136, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 11075.0, "trend": 28.752124, "fair_value": 22.716691, "relative_strength": 11.046823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.688699, "energy": 64.868626, "activity_lines": [ 34.119252, 33.722774, 31.577327, 30.209802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.328587, "volume": 13000, "typical_volume": 11340.0, "trend": 29.011349, "fair_value": 22.827949, "relative_strength": 12.305271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.890495, "energy": 63.828415, "activity_lines": [ 34.204561, 33.950421, 32.019038, 30.569574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.15073, "volume": 16200, "typical_volume": 11240.0, "trend": 29.19959, "fair_value": 22.925462, "relative_strength": 5.268703, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.109202, "energy": 43.792679, "activity_lines": [ 33.490617, 33.697112, 32.216385, 30.772115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.190506, "volume": 10400, "typical_volume": 10795.0, "trend": 29.374009, "fair_value": 23.022069, "relative_strength": 5.047446, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.624336, "energy": 33.568291, "activity_lines": [ 32.917569, 33.443661, 32.388931, 30.965077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.84, "volume": 17900, "typical_volume": 10935.0, "trend": 29.541111, "fair_value": 23.119759, "relative_strength": 4.291808, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.377184, "energy": 25.176124, "activity_lines": [ 32.460183, 33.124868, 32.496648, 31.124173 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.360001, "volume": 9500, "typical_volume": 10785.0, "trend": 29.74268, "fair_value": 23.228966, "relative_strength": 5.723379, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.341999, "energy": 27.225396, "activity_lines": [ 32.624105, 33.09999, 32.719489, 31.370553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }