{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa6d3336-4460-43c6-8a91-34ac47933e58", "symbol": "G24", "name": "Scout24 SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.954, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.711, "architecture_energy": 7.12, "architecture_maturity": 29.227, "architecture_confidence": 39.2, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.47, "rotation_up": 30.79, "upward_expansion": 22.65, "deceleration": 59.18, "rotation_down": 30.46, "downward_expansion": 29.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.826667, 72.840993, 72.034354, 71.221323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 74.400002, "trend_reference": 71.577358, "distance_from_trend": 0.039435, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 79.411508, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063108, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.078253, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024531, "excess_performance": -0.040109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039435, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056004, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.063108, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052061, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160783, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102576, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024531, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.977911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2256896, "relative_activity": 1.635921, "balance": 1.977911, "dry_up": 1.316115, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080224, "annualized_volatility": 0.330954, "from_high_reference": -0.359776, "from_low_reference": 0.209992 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.577358, "fair_value_reference": 79.411508, "structural_low": 61.488014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.006468, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.0398, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.109921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0638, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.089716, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.275132, "worst_return": -0.06462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.19003, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.184071, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.425548, "worst_return": -0.078375, "sufficient": false }, { 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"trend": 72.189231, "fair_value": 79.187297, "relative_strength": -20.855296, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.469298, "energy": 15.216286, "activity_lines": [ 71.276666, 72.173679, 71.175587, 70.921184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.35, "volume": 2245517, "typical_volume": 1340125.35, "trend": 71.908612, "fair_value": 79.309941, "relative_strength": -14.824441, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.408103, "energy": 7.177514, "activity_lines": [ 72.106667, 72.534577, 71.612432, 71.060588 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.400002, "volume": 2256896, "typical_volume": 1379587.15, "trend": 71.577358, "fair_value": 79.411508, "relative_strength": -16.078253, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.711054, "energy": 7.119851, "activity_lines": [ 72.826667, 72.840993, 72.034354, 71.221323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }