{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa7150fc-4eef-461d-861a-94513e725f94", "symbol": "ANE", "name": "Corporaci\u00f3n Acciona Energ\u00edas Renovables, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 73.972, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.048, "architecture_energy": 45.77, "architecture_maturity": 10.122, "architecture_confidence": 85.031, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.45, "rotation_up": 14.44, "upward_expansion": 21.43, "deceleration": 53.82, "rotation_down": 70.3, "downward_expansion": 51.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.368, 21.97178, 22.389724, 22.222465 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.860001, "trend_reference": 21.99308, "distance_from_trend": -0.05152, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.093109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011051, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.335703, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019737, "excess_performance": -0.144168, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05152, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007143, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011051, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083327, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203357, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.521423, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1842904, "relative_activity": 1.945718, "balance": 0.521423, "dry_up": 1.506131, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059002, "annualized_volatility": 0.253822, "from_high_reference": -0.173534, "from_low_reference": 0.091004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.99308, "fair_value_reference": 21.093109, "structural_low": 19.120001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.02633, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.00855, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.072691, "worst_return": -0.150394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031663, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.098455, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.001321, "worst_return": -0.240982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023108, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.153234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.011, "worst_return": -0.189562, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.272544, "energy": 14.180109, "activity_lines": [ 22.302667, 22.757895, 22.650663, 22.358975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.68, "volume": 977011, "typical_volume": 918617.25, "trend": 22.098413, "fair_value": 21.158024, "relative_strength": -16.087401, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.708089, "energy": 24.745656, "activity_lines": [ 21.974667, 22.518834, 22.599175, 22.331206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.6, "volume": 1814771, "typical_volume": 940617.4, "trend": 22.04708, "fair_value": 21.126776, "relative_strength": -16.560429, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.64207, "energy": 29.459827, "activity_lines": [ 21.74, 22.294132, 22.531593, 22.29905 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.860001, "volume": 1842904, "typical_volume": 947158.7, "trend": 21.99308, "fair_value": 21.093109, "relative_strength": -20.335703, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.048162, "energy": 45.770108, "activity_lines": [ 21.368, 21.97178, 22.389724, 22.222465 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }