{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa768a54-a501-4632-88f6-388de5051055", "symbol": "APTV", "name": "Aptiv PLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.789, "architecture_energy": 68.662, "architecture_maturity": 63.587, "architecture_confidence": 81.571, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.01, "rotation_up": 11.3, "upward_expansion": 13.06, "deceleration": 38.94, "rotation_down": 77.09, "downward_expansion": 91.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.586, 57.332909, 59.336381, 61.549376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 49.55, "trend_reference": 65.614667, "distance_from_trend": -0.244833, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 72.717949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.3186, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.117754, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.398519, "excess_performance": -0.524144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.244833, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088685, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.3186, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079058, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.391178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086144, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.398519, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.516376, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42949474, "relative_activity": 2.601054, "balance": 0.516376, "dry_up": 1.158294, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134808, "annualized_volatility": 0.401686, "from_high_reference": -0.44282, "from_low_reference": 0.07344 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.614667, "fair_value_reference": 72.717949, "structural_low": 46.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.017504, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.010384, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.320054, "worst_return": -0.207836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.041963, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.026154, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.318894, "worst_return": -0.267687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.056123, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.155589, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.434471, "worst_return": -0.168433, "sufficient": true }, 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"energy": 57.836407, "activity_lines": [ 58.162667, 60.565091, 60.96481, 63.39129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.47, "volume": 11812509, "typical_volume": 15192967.2, "trend": 66.918667, "fair_value": 73.033013, "relative_strength": -28.726783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.971084, "energy": 53.88401, "activity_lines": [ 57.399333, 59.57, 60.446714, 62.669935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.55, "volume": 42949474, "typical_volume": 16512334.55, "trend": 65.614667, "fair_value": 72.717949, "relative_strength": -39.117754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.789439, "energy": 68.661736, "activity_lines": [ 54.586, 57.332909, 59.336381, 61.549376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }