{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa78086d-7734-4fb2-9b97-e09e802c5092", "symbol": "ANXU", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Nasdaq-100 Swap ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.219, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.529, "architecture_energy": 30.841, "architecture_maturity": 68.584, "architecture_confidence": 89.94, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.65, "rotation_up": 29.08, "upward_expansion": 58.92, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 31.97, "downward_expansion": 20.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 330.603337, 333.460001, 332.370477, 322.766344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 340.450012, "trend_reference": 310.969999, "distance_from_trend": 0.0948, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 243.769801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.396605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.437456, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.1954, "excess_performance": 0.142089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0948, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054076, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.396605, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052054, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.064375, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114526, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1954, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.049051, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10710, "relative_activity": 1.964201, "balance": 1.049051, "dry_up": 2.222151, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032593, "annualized_volatility": 0.19782, "from_high_reference": -0.024918, "from_low_reference": 0.294487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 310.969999, "fair_value_reference": 243.769801, "structural_low": 264.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.006894, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.010572, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.106773, "worst_return": -0.083628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.073225, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.034104, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.147909, "worst_return": -0.074837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.180864, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.153576, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.216983, "worst_return": -0.025669, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.536521, "energy": 56.093295, "activity_lines": [ 340.413334, 340.695455, 328.047142, 317.383118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 327.399994, "volume": 10769, "typical_volume": 4112.35, "trend": 307.226666, "fair_value": 240.79166, "relative_strength": 7.680127, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.90612, "energy": 42.954087, "activity_lines": [ 335.929999, 338.427272, 329.313094, 318.766236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 324.950012, "volume": 3985, "typical_volume": 4168.85, "trend": 308.305, "fair_value": 241.732878, "relative_strength": 6.173467, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.957206, "energy": 30.839704, "activity_lines": [ 331.503337, 335.813638, 330.144762, 319.909677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 321.549988, "volume": 23002, "typical_volume": 5029.05, "trend": 309.416666, "fair_value": 242.67448, "relative_strength": 3.186881, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.253907, "energy": 27.648617, "activity_lines": [ 327.436666, 332.757272, 330.45738, 320.764193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 340.450012, "volume": 10710, "typical_volume": 5452.6, "trend": 310.969999, "fair_value": 243.769801, "relative_strength": 6.437456, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.529374, "energy": 30.8412, "activity_lines": [ 330.603337, 333.460001, 332.370477, 322.766344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }