{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa7a6ffd-1bcc-46ed-babf-08a458635d48", "symbol": "EET", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA MSCI EMERGING MKTS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.739, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.397, "architecture_energy": 14.758, "architecture_maturity": 20.872, "architecture_confidence": 84.509, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.71, "rotation_up": 17.16, "upward_expansion": 40.39, "deceleration": 84.6, "rotation_down": 39.83, "downward_expansion": 34.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 103.1446, 106.290351, 107.902302, 104.908335 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 106.0655, "trend_reference": 101.223006, "distance_from_trend": 0.04784, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.155799, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.653249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.060186, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.106535, "excess_performance": -0.01909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106394, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.653249, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336094, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050602, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.287892, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106535, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.881954, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31420, "relative_activity": 0.545369, "balance": 0.881954, "dry_up": 0.808785, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129587, "annualized_volatility": 0.564886, "from_high_reference": -0.174942, "from_low_reference": 0.625628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.223006, "fair_value_reference": 64.155799, "structural_low": 77.17, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.030306, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.007728, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.253321, "worst_return": -0.063777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009294, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.045303, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.210073, "worst_return": -0.10754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038516, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.079898, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.439775, "worst_return": -0.156302, 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107.069519, 102.740635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 107.2124, "volume": 112114, "typical_volume": 67711.45, "trend": 97.470551, "fair_value": 62.40616, "relative_strength": 13.137433, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.059368, "energy": 35.924114, "activity_lines": [ 113.58362, 113.339369, 107.568934, 103.431117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 111.4486, "volume": 111727, "typical_volume": 70710.85, "trend": 98.625945, "fair_value": 62.79874, "relative_strength": 15.230427, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.611399, "energy": 28.439216, "activity_lines": [ 112.962358, 113.139557, 108.431699, 104.332927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 100.5876, "volume": 93454, "typical_volume": 72962.4, "trend": 99.395994, "fair_value": 63.132655, "relative_strength": 5.150402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.848093, "energy": 16.313283, "activity_lines": [ 108.261649, 110.853392, 108.218546, 104.459485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 99.4123, "volume": 30444, "typical_volume": 66102.6, "trend": 100.026883, "fair_value": 63.434996, "relative_strength": 4.07499, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.498248, "energy": 16.203531, "activity_lines": [ 104.112833, 108.659463, 107.905636, 104.460537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.4952, "volume": 31066, "typical_volume": 57770.8, "trend": 100.59295, "fair_value": 63.772686, "relative_strength": 4.569943, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.293095, "energy": 14.186979, "activity_lines": [ 102.466507, 106.982731, 107.727253, 104.555267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 106.0655, "volume": 31420, "typical_volume": 57612.35, "trend": 101.223006, "fair_value": 64.155799, "relative_strength": 5.060186, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.397465, "energy": 14.757876, "activity_lines": [ 103.1446, 106.290351, 107.902302, 104.908335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }