{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "aa7cbdba-cbe9-4161-bd11-969d1428cbef",
    "symbol": "UMDV",
    "name": "iShares US Medical Devices UCITS ETF USD (Acc)",
    "exchange": "AMS",
    "country": "NL",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AEX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 91.941,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": 2.578,
    "architecture_energy": 9.538,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 55.105,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 60.82,
        "rotation_up": 31.79,
        "upward_expansion": 26.1,
        "deceleration": 49.99,
        "rotation_down": 17.38,
        "downward_expansion": 48.1
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      "activity_lines": [
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        5.557439
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 5.738,
    "trend_reference": 5.773757,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.006193,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 6.12011,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.062435,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -17.48035,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.094896,
    "excess_performance": -0.211558,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006193,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.072831,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.062435,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.07777,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.174804,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.062471,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.094896,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.700224,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
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      "relative_activity": 1.085143,
      "balance": 0.700224,
      "dry_up": 2.155154,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.038327,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.188667,
      "from_high_reference": -0.18254,
      "from_low_reference": 0.126866
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    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 6.12011,
      "structural_low": 5.092,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
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    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 20,
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        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.134425,
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      },
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        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "relative_strength": -21.824535,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 363909.1,
        "trend": 5.897697,
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        "relative_strength": -22.651707,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -39.234888,
        "energy": 24.78182,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.4268,
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          5.440827,
          5.61742
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 5.383,
        "volume": 402975,
        "typical_volume": 372506.0,
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        "fair_value": 6.119988,
        "relative_strength": -22.16436,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -39.712063,
        "energy": 25.065957,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.419267,
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          5.42408,
          5.584214
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 5.51,
        "volume": 1315399,
        "typical_volume": 430560.4,
        "trend": 5.811987,
        "fair_value": 6.118878,
        "relative_strength": -20.429783,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -34.83844,
        "energy": 21.113441,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.444467,
          5.415873,
          5.423118,
          5.562212
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 5.738,
        "volume": 488087,
        "typical_volume": 449790.65,
        "trend": 5.773757,
        "fair_value": 6.12011,
        "relative_strength": -17.48035,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 2.578018,
        "energy": 9.538439,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.541933,
          5.480691,
          5.445841,
          5.557439
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}