{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa7cf388-2f92-4f8b-b800-f48dec7155df", "symbol": "COG", "name": "COG Financial Services Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.373, "architecture_energy": 28.846, "architecture_maturity": 23.327, "architecture_confidence": 93.63, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.71, "rotation_up": 18.46, "upward_expansion": 4.95, "deceleration": 45.9, "rotation_down": 49.98, "downward_expansion": 73.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.374, 1.388455, 1.421762, 1.426744 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.45, "trend_reference": 1.474462, "distance_from_trend": -0.01659, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.321151, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097528, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.516998, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.149206, "excess_performance": -0.212912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01659, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128096, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097528, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175638, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19517, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145133, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149206, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.787647, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 999032, "relative_activity": 0.683337, "balance": 0.787647, "dry_up": 0.52136, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0813, "annualized_volatility": 0.530005, "from_high_reference": -0.394761, "from_low_reference": 0.27193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.474462, "fair_value_reference": 1.321151, "structural_low": 1.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.047761, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.052209, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.324468, "worst_return": -0.164286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046501, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014546, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.648937, "worst_return": -0.226786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015375, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015798, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.285248, "worst_return": -0.273111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.037233, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05711, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.027099, "worst_return": -0.101565, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071162, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024221, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014551, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053719, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.10667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012041, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148936, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.772352, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181395, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003184, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039735, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.150135, "volume": 123686, "typical_volume": 214429.2, "trend": 1.164741, "fair_value": 1.036074, "relative_strength": -5.282277, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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25.919245, "activity_lines": [ 1.430333, 1.466182, 1.442484, 1.480106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.365, "volume": 613134, "typical_volume": 1737184.05, "trend": 1.558788, "fair_value": 1.314908, "relative_strength": -21.539019, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.136733, "energy": 32.340983, "activity_lines": [ 1.405333, 1.443273, 1.436436, 1.466372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.45, "volume": 460006, "typical_volume": 1692380.4, "trend": 1.541547, "fair_value": 1.317071, "relative_strength": -16.408613, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.874373, "energy": 27.237093, "activity_lines": [ 1.417333, 1.436545, 1.439659, 1.459353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.285, "volume": 614387, "typical_volume": 1633329.45, "trend": 1.516208, "fair_value": 1.318204, "relative_strength": -25.391175, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.222221, "energy": 39.055273, "activity_lines": [ 1.375, 1.403455, 1.427405, 1.442802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.31, "volume": 975471, "typical_volume": 1502303.1, "trend": 1.492677, "fair_value": 1.319255, "relative_strength": -25.236811, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.400023, "energy": 48.615525, "activity_lines": [ 1.349333, 1.381545, 1.417905, 1.429498 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.45, "volume": 999032, "typical_volume": 1461991.05, "trend": 1.474462, "fair_value": 1.321151, "relative_strength": -19.516998, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.372753, "energy": 28.845836, "activity_lines": [ 1.374, 1.388455, 1.421762, 1.426744 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }