{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa7ff08b-0291-4313-9ade-5fc79f4d7cc8", "symbol": "BNJ", "name": "BlackRock New Jersey Municipal Income Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.236, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.203, "architecture_energy": 39.653, "architecture_maturity": 4.631, "architecture_confidence": 71.753, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.48, "rotation_up": 49.97, "upward_expansion": 78.28, "deceleration": 52.91, "rotation_down": 19.54, "downward_expansion": 9.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.159714, 15.112252, 15.040086, 14.983578 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.08, "trend_reference": 14.96201, "distance_from_trend": 0.007886, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.324637, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052732, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.03652, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001065, "excess_performance": -0.12669, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007886, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008134, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052732, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005113, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001065, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.526538, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102872, "relative_activity": 1.074296, "balance": 0.526538, "dry_up": 1.083392, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022602, "annualized_volatility": 0.096653, "from_high_reference": -0.031682, "from_low_reference": 0.062431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.96201, "fair_value_reference": 14.324637, "structural_low": 14.193865, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.00621, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.02194, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.088691, "worst_return": -0.039422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009133, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.082138, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.110992, "worst_return": -0.070246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.03295, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062532, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.033203, "worst_return": 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15.056562, 14.969861, 14.942939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.24571, "volume": 97065, "typical_volume": 93318.55, "trend": 14.935791, "fair_value": 14.296126, "relative_strength": -5.414462, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.269046, "energy": 45.212009, "activity_lines": [ 15.166342, 15.099435, 15.004411, 14.964105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.108273, "volume": 130583, "typical_volume": 95064.15, "trend": 14.950657, "fair_value": 14.310714, "relative_strength": -7.013864, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.47971, "energy": 50.558461, "activity_lines": [ 15.175683, 15.110853, 15.024416, 14.975233 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.08, "volume": 102872, "typical_volume": 95757.6, "trend": 14.96201, "fair_value": 14.324637, "relative_strength": -10.03652, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.2033, "energy": 39.653091, "activity_lines": [ 15.159714, 15.112252, 15.040086, 14.983578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }