{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa806797-68a3-4a8b-afb6-c603ea0f9bf0", "symbol": "FLGT", "name": "Fulgent Genetics, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.248, "architecture_energy": 69.901, "architecture_maturity": 91.788, "architecture_confidence": 90.47, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.44, "rotation_up": 28.89, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 53.04, "downward_expansion": 80.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 318.035998, 323.872544, 358.81138, 391.694171 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 291.190002, "trend_reference": 429.833, "distance_from_trend": -0.322551, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 408.764102, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.287633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.39507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.408751, "excess_performance": -0.354085, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.322551, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105292, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.287633, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.42238, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.323951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.390398, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.408751, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.352267, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.352267, "dry_up": 0.225917, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090411, "annualized_volatility": 0.758301, "from_high_reference": -0.408751, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 429.833, "fair_value_reference": 408.764102, "structural_low": 291.190002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.035412, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.290991, "worst_return": -0.235412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.06091, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.09802, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.127928, "worst_return": -0.243851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.086842, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.249806, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.079571, "worst_return": -0.415464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048718, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061453, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046823, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", 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"activity_lines": [ 312.5, 344.454545, 401.892857, 427.643312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 372.0, "volume": 14500, "typical_volume": 2657.35, "trend": 449.862667, "fair_value": 416.488525, "relative_strength": -14.276857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.827914, "energy": 67.6851, "activity_lines": [ 332.333333, 342.336364, 395.6, 422.398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 372.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2657.35, "trend": 446.423, "fair_value": 414.86032, "relative_strength": -14.307181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.912469, "energy": 60.23785, "activity_lines": [ 348.2, 342.409091, 389.880952, 417.374602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 344.609985, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 2782.35, "trend": 442.070333, "fair_value": 413.056538, "relative_strength": -20.113232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.553632, "energy": 50.069654, "activity_lines": [ 350.969995, 339.692725, 382.127141, 410.806021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 291.190002, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 2783.1, "trend": 436.543333, "fair_value": 410.91032, "relative_strength": -32.707211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.021536, "energy": 59.571928, "activity_lines": [ 333.792663, 329.952543, 369.989951, 401.071806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 291.190002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2783.1, "trend": 429.833, "fair_value": 408.764102, "relative_strength": -32.39507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.24805, "energy": 69.901352, "activity_lines": [ 318.035998, 323.872544, 358.81138, 391.694171 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }