{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa83a5ce-e23d-4cc3-a1b6-db9612677928", "symbol": "KALYANIFRG", "name": "Kalyani Forge Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 48.297, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.451, "architecture_energy": 20.299, "architecture_maturity": 33.748, "architecture_confidence": 65.899, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.6, "rotation_up": 41.41, "upward_expansion": 71.98, "deceleration": 59.23, "rotation_down": 24.84, "downward_expansion": 5.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 615.863354, 613.410922, 611.495484, 608.758392 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 635.400024, "trend_reference": 606.963336, "distance_from_trend": 0.046851, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 565.745634, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.12312, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.151547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.049467, "excess_performance": 0.093176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046851, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021621, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.12312, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001515, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043362, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049467, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.814548, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11094, "relative_activity": 2.24609, "balance": 0.814548, "dry_up": 1.474161, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075942, "annualized_volatility": 0.24779, "from_high_reference": -0.252163, "from_low_reference": 0.213522 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 606.963336, "fair_value_reference": 565.745634, "structural_low": 523.599976, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.000416, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.022125, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.478664, "worst_return": -0.136567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016985, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019834, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.320923, "worst_return": -0.149044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.208735, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.109875, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.583339, "worst_return": -0.1609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.506591, "energy": 6.328707, "activity_lines": [ 610.86001, 609.788187, 608.452146, 607.255378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 601.900024, "volume": 5438, "typical_volume": 4673.5, "trend": 606.466669, "fair_value": 563.357807, "relative_strength": -4.569135, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.328597, "energy": 5.63062, "activity_lines": [ 607.786682, 608.353645, 608.457624, 606.891724 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 635.400024, "volume": 11094, "typical_volume": 4939.25, "trend": 606.963336, "fair_value": 565.745634, "relative_strength": 0.151547, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.450745, "energy": 20.298911, "activity_lines": [ 615.863354, 613.410922, 611.495484, 608.758392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }