{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa84eedf-7e03-4e3b-a6e2-6f5b3fd19cda", "symbol": "MTF-F47", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds - MTF SAL S&P Industrial Currency Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.202, "architecture_energy": 68.247, "architecture_maturity": 93.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.663, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 29.88, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 56.7, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.179333, 155.971636, 1745.382571, 2715.568258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 58.62, "trend_reference": 3794.816333, "distance_from_trend": -0.984553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4122.855705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985782, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.769332, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989078, "excess_performance": -1.017978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984553, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27477, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985782, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.277355, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.826898, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989078, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.734035, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2226, "relative_activity": 0.225952, "balance": 0.734035, "dry_up": 0.988388, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.809779, "annualized_volatility": 6.384901, "from_high_reference": -0.989597, "from_low_reference": 0.08757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3794.816333, "fair_value_reference": 4122.855705, "structural_low": 53.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.039815, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.032053, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.15352, "worst_return": -0.111436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.120164, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.002949, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.027402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.127165, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.010136, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.221692, "worst_return": 0.027087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.999885, "energy": 88.099745, "activity_lines": [ 57.340667, 1525.803818, 3114.330524, 3787.037871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.47, "volume": 29988, "typical_volume": 11272.1, "trend": 4291.343, "fair_value": 4191.072372, "relative_strength": -98.893845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.701995, "energy": 89.042555, "activity_lines": [ 57.176, 1035.801636, 2732.647571, 3503.283634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.2, "volume": 2579, "typical_volume": 11392.2, "trend": 4126.683, "fair_value": 4168.503141, "relative_strength": -98.901874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.691115, "energy": 85.883186, "activity_lines": [ 56.842667, 644.832727, 2377.503333, 3230.048602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.38, "volume": 4156, "typical_volume": 10404.25, "trend": 3962.762333, "fair_value": 4145.717115, "relative_strength": -98.841542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.635302, "energy": 68.933034, "activity_lines": [ 56.595333, 352.420182, 2048.756238, 2967.448409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.62, "volume": 2226, "typical_volume": 9851.65, "trend": 3794.816333, "fair_value": 4122.855705, "relative_strength": -98.769332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.2018, "energy": 68.24685, "activity_lines": [ 57.179333, 155.971636, 1745.382571, 2715.568258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }