{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa8973fd-0d80-4600-8454-39623b5571c4", "symbol": "PQVM", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 QVM UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.27, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.31, "architecture_energy": 27.802, "architecture_maturity": 59.919, "architecture_confidence": 73.113, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.62, "rotation_up": 19.57, "upward_expansion": 54.84, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 33.63, "downward_expansion": 20.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.106, 67.969482, 67.36276, 66.01636 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 66.449997, "trend_reference": 64.110432, "distance_from_trend": 0.036493, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.028949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229896, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.963255, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095628, "excess_performance": -0.075264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036493, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060246, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229896, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022265, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069633, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095628, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.50959, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8613, "relative_activity": 1.611126, "balance": 0.50959, "dry_up": 1.879413, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027433, "annualized_volatility": 0.111555, "from_high_reference": -0.062235, "from_low_reference": 0.183816 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.110432, "fair_value_reference": 54.028949, "structural_low": 59.080002, "invalidation": "A 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015878, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001433, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002135, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009114, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003069, "active": 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5158.9, "trend": 63.854944, "fair_value": 53.856462, "relative_strength": -4.715919, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.329428, "energy": 28.796464, "activity_lines": [ 67.677334, 68.327577, 67.297225, 65.848937 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.449997, "volume": 8613, "typical_volume": 5345.95, "trend": 64.110432, "fair_value": 54.028949, "relative_strength": -6.963255, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.309918, "energy": 27.802334, "activity_lines": [ 67.106, 67.969482, 67.36276, 66.01636 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }