{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa8d1fd2-6b91-4b89-be30-4428685bef17", "symbol": "6988", "name": "WELLYSUN INC", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.403, "architecture_energy": 60.218, "architecture_maturity": 29.672, "architecture_confidence": 92.086, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.93, "rotation_up": 15.25, "upward_expansion": 11.79, "deceleration": 42.3, "rotation_down": 66.79, "downward_expansion": 87.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.526667, 12.846364, 13.614524, 14.136022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.5, "trend_reference": 15.076667, "distance_from_trend": -0.170904, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.463844, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.323001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.062475, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.404762, "excess_performance": -0.846134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170904, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0249, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.323001, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211897, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.430625, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11843, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.404762, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.288022, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 274000, "relative_activity": 1.210409, "balance": 0.288022, "dry_up": 0.720065, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096923, "annualized_volatility": 0.533366, "from_high_reference": -0.415888, "from_low_reference": 0.05042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.076667, "fair_value_reference": 18.463844, "structural_low": 11.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.037453, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016881, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.037453, "worst_return": -0.037453, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181287, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06367, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 23.205, "volume": 446000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 23.205, "volume": 137000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"trend": 15.231667, "fair_value": 18.730759, "relative_strength": -41.776896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.507846, "energy": 68.025434, "activity_lines": [ 13.316667, 13.837273, 14.314762, 14.829032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.85, "volume": 137000, "typical_volume": 222077.3, "trend": 15.231667, "fair_value": 18.665417, "relative_strength": -41.86251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.136788, "energy": 61.42411, "activity_lines": [ 13.113333, 13.534545, 14.153571, 14.675376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.1, "volume": 134000, "typical_volume": 222769.55, "trend": 15.203333, "fair_value": 18.593269, "relative_strength": -43.553846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.868873, "energy": 64.800727, "activity_lines": [ 12.736667, 13.172727, 13.929524, 14.473333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.65, "volume": 107004, "typical_volume": 220069.7, "trend": 15.175, "fair_value": 18.528669, "relative_strength": -41.395417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.502082, "energy": 58.301734, "activity_lines": [ 12.626667, 12.994545, 13.775238, 14.308602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.5, "volume": 274000, "typical_volume": 226369.7, "trend": 15.076667, "fair_value": 18.463844, "relative_strength": -43.062475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.403104, "energy": 60.218196, "activity_lines": [ 12.526667, 12.846364, 13.614524, 14.136022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }