{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa8eab7e-5a25-4e0c-85bf-d4fe03c88644", "symbol": "SEA", "name": "Seascape Energy Asia plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.957, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.97, "architecture_energy": 10.149, "architecture_maturity": 11.334, "architecture_confidence": 72.276, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.02, "rotation_up": 15.98, "upward_expansion": 45.12, "deceleration": 82.39, "rotation_down": 31.9, "downward_expansion": 25.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.857733, 0.872073, 0.880781, 0.863159 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.834, "trend_reference": 0.8347, "distance_from_trend": -0.000839, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.444583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.875914, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.355085, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.055696, "excess_performance": 0.004461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099881, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.875914, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.430158, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055696, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.701668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1119738, "relative_activity": 1.548918, "balance": 0.701668, "dry_up": 1.026461, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071134, "annualized_volatility": 0.340554, "from_high_reference": -0.146366, "from_low_reference": 0.463158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.8347, "fair_value_reference": 0.444583, "structural_low": 0.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.025187, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.053309, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.185185, "worst_return": -0.455556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.088889, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.04013, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.923077, "worst_return": -0.537037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.177332, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.099577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.666667, "worst_return": -0.771605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.066148, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005647, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.566667, "worst_return": -0.574074, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025862, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.315068, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.365385, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15142, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": 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"close": 0.86, "volume": 491983, "typical_volume": 726660.75, "trend": 0.810267, "fair_value": 0.429756, "relative_strength": 4.768102, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.622613, "energy": 19.812225, "activity_lines": [ 0.888667, 0.898909, 0.879524, 0.852538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.87, "volume": 755247, "typical_volume": 732120.7, "trend": 0.818933, "fair_value": 0.433667, "relative_strength": 4.846529, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.802383, "energy": 19.226325, "activity_lines": [ 0.877333, 0.892582, 0.88139, 0.856391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.88, "volume": 659043, "typical_volume": 722334.85, "trend": 0.823933, "fair_value": 0.437288, "relative_strength": 4.632585, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.435421, "energy": 17.941403, "activity_lines": [ 0.874667, 0.888618, 0.883638, 0.860331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.864, "volume": 434154, "typical_volume": 709617.45, "trend": 0.830233, "fair_value": 0.44092, "relative_strength": 1.39847, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.609765, "energy": 13.737924, "activity_lines": [ 0.870667, 0.882291, 0.88391, 0.862916 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.834, "volume": 1119738, "typical_volume": 722916.4, "trend": 0.8347, "fair_value": 0.444583, "relative_strength": -2.355085, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.969553, "energy": 10.149316, "activity_lines": [ 0.857733, 0.872073, 0.880781, 0.863159 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }