{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa8fffa9-e350-48e9-8b3d-fd8c474d6cb3", "symbol": "UMESLTD", "name": "Usha Martin Education & Solutions Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.074, "architecture_energy": 9.336, "architecture_maturity": 35.215, "architecture_confidence": 62.414, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.63, "rotation_up": 24.39, "upward_expansion": 36.12, "deceleration": 68.19, "rotation_down": 32.03, "downward_expansion": 39.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.498, 5.593455, 5.635857, 5.639763 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.57, "trend_reference": 5.496, "distance_from_trend": 0.013464, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.910705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.057642, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.923515, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.205628, "excess_performance": 0.249337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013464, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041632, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.057642, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029235, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006418, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.205628, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.424765, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29409, "relative_activity": 0.201289, "balance": 0.424765, "dry_up": 0.418809, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107996, "annualized_volatility": 0.760927, "from_high_reference": -0.219888, "from_low_reference": 0.435567 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.496, "fair_value_reference": 5.910705, "structural_low": 3.88, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.041308, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.030956, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.180952, "worst_return": -0.490909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.068172, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.090194, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.21975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033138, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.54878, "worst_return": -0.288071, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.263566, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.241525, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011421, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213184, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034358, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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36.648621, "energy": 22.572342, "activity_lines": [ 5.811333, 5.706182, 5.778095, 5.63929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.4, "volume": 137023, "typical_volume": 305897.35, "trend": 5.447667, "fair_value": 5.872115, "relative_strength": 0.34667, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.562006, "energy": 10.936505, "activity_lines": [ 5.684, 5.673273, 5.743714, 5.636946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.39, "volume": 28383, "typical_volume": 303754.15, "trend": 5.456333, "fair_value": 5.885192, "relative_strength": 2.624209, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.899894, "energy": 5.242096, "activity_lines": [ 5.576, 5.639636, 5.70219, 5.633226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.46, "volume": 49943, "typical_volume": 183224.65, "trend": 5.472333, "fair_value": 5.898718, "relative_strength": 1.524059, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.324822, "energy": 10.120498, "activity_lines": [ 5.514667, 5.612364, 5.661286, 5.633462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.57, "volume": 29409, "typical_volume": 146103.7, "trend": 5.496, "fair_value": 5.910705, "relative_strength": 2.923515, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.074274, "energy": 9.336372, "activity_lines": [ 5.498, 5.593455, 5.635857, 5.639763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }