{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa906b08-b71f-4b9a-b3c8-c192fd3e85a1", "symbol": "PEEL", "name": "Peel Hunt Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 93.254, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.106, "architecture_energy": 14.156, "architecture_maturity": 17.302, "architecture_confidence": 64.409, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.88, "rotation_up": 23.45, "upward_expansion": 14.5, "deceleration": 39.34, "rotation_down": 32.49, "downward_expansion": 59.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.964333, 0.965176, 0.957518, 0.973088 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.965, "trend_reference": 1.000773, "distance_from_trend": -0.035746, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.010062, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.044613, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.88076, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.131126, "excess_performance": -0.182361, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035746, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.044613, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028971, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01991, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131126, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.533942, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1275184, "relative_activity": 3.260603, "balance": 0.533942, "dry_up": 1.417685, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052783, "annualized_volatility": 0.226483, "from_high_reference": -0.19021, "from_low_reference": 0.17702 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.000773, "fair_value_reference": 1.010062, "structural_low": 0.819867, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032013, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.032177, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.004807, "worst_return": -0.148515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.108911, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.119114, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.028846, "worst_return": -0.193308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.256899, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.282228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.134616, "worst_return": -0.379182, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069673, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.207965, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059139, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082475, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104762, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103004, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061905, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038024, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005155, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.981933, "volume": 31991, "typical_volume": 386678.8, "trend": 1.017842, "fair_value": 1.191859, "relative_strength": 7.772865, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.341941, "energy": 22.848212, "activity_lines": [ 0.970109, 0.955062, 0.959037, 0.983672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.95, "volume": 118202, "typical_volume": 444860.75, "trend": 1.00547, "fair_value": 1.010415, "relative_strength": -10.390542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.162032, "energy": 20.769559, "activity_lines": [ 0.965556, 0.955944, 0.956272, 0.980096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.97, "volume": 607744, "typical_volume": 456104.3, "trend": 1.005231, "fair_value": 1.010247, "relative_strength": -9.523753, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.215353, "energy": 11.082091, "activity_lines": [ 0.965667, 0.960263, 0.956381, 0.977808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.97, "volume": 216631, "typical_volume": 403929.65, "trend": 1.002927, "fair_value": 1.01017, "relative_strength": -10.375065, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.000017, "energy": 12.76063, "activity_lines": [ 0.964667, 0.963585, 0.957114, 0.975535 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.965, "volume": 1275184, "typical_volume": 391088.35, "trend": 1.000773, "fair_value": 1.010062, "relative_strength": -10.88076, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.105555, "energy": 14.15575, "activity_lines": [ 0.964333, 0.965176, 0.957518, 0.973088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }