{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa95b947-2b98-45b2-bd10-f9d467e93147", "symbol": "REUG", "name": "VanEck Circular Economy UCITS ETF A USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.345, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.032, "architecture_energy": 59.727, "architecture_maturity": 13.462, "architecture_confidence": 73.672, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.52, "rotation_up": 67.47, "upward_expansion": 83.14, "deceleration": 49.06, "rotation_down": 13.3, "downward_expansion": 9.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.3865, 21.267046, 21.068036, 21.02214 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.889999, "trend_reference": 20.981917, "distance_from_trend": 0.043279, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.687362, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17138, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.17679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042753, "excess_performance": -0.008482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043279, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029788, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17138, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032424, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002564, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042753, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.733918, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1107, "relative_activity": 2.49521, "balance": 1.733918, "dry_up": 0.955708, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019872, "annualized_volatility": 0.145225, "from_high_reference": -0.015737, "from_low_reference": 0.184908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.981917, "fair_value_reference": 18.687362, "structural_low": 19.691999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.010269, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.004029, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.063342, "worst_return": -0.043691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012958, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.025033, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.046315, "worst_return": -0.042985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.016187, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002796, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.145894, "worst_return": -0.024652, "sufficient": false }, { 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20.697283, "fair_value": 18.556305, "relative_strength": -1.632981, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.01446, "energy": 55.03236, "activity_lines": [ 21.132667, 20.961273, 20.87975, 20.872222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.0075, "volume": 124, "typical_volume": 953.35, "trend": 20.75, "fair_value": 18.582506, "relative_strength": -0.996767, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.779801, "energy": 49.844367, "activity_lines": [ 21.129167, 20.986909, 20.885072, 20.892236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.182501, "volume": 164, "typical_volume": 928.9, "trend": 20.81065, "fair_value": 18.606664, "relative_strength": -1.024184, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.401208, "energy": 53.376002, "activity_lines": [ 21.158667, 21.03541, 20.911167, 20.920139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.225, "volume": 47, "typical_volume": 420.85, "trend": 20.87275, "fair_value": 18.631465, "relative_strength": -1.9527, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.026549, "energy": 45.043134, "activity_lines": [ 21.1815, 21.08691, 20.946167, 20.946871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.075001, "volume": 378, "typical_volume": 403.95, "trend": 20.925583, "fair_value": 18.655599, "relative_strength": -3.691665, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.168584, "energy": 28.301152, "activity_lines": [ 21.140001, 21.107955, 20.968726, 20.95992 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.889999, "volume": 1107, "typical_volume": 443.65, "trend": 20.981917, "fair_value": 18.687362, "relative_strength": -0.17679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.031515, "energy": 59.726595, "activity_lines": [ 21.3865, 21.267046, 21.068036, 21.02214 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }