{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa9940d8-5bb4-44ba-86aa-daab7e29fca7", "symbol": "HCHA", "name": "HSBC MSCI China UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.341, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.849, "architecture_energy": 20.397, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 41.12, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.47, "rotation_up": 44.29, "upward_expansion": 27.73, "deceleration": 41.29, "rotation_down": 15.2, "downward_expansion": 50.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.386733, 7.251455, 7.281014, 7.354323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.547, "trend_reference": 7.501833, "distance_from_trend": 0.006021, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.741087, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119552, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.105731, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.050333, "excess_performance": -0.221225, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006021, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037832, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119552, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028636, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171057, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.198526, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44499, "relative_activity": 0.678768, "balance": 0.198526, "dry_up": 0.609967, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027408, "annualized_volatility": 0.17016, "from_high_reference": -0.129326, "from_low_reference": 0.123734 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.501833, "fair_value_reference": 6.741087, "structural_low": 6.716, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001203, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046958, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.061257, "worst_return": -0.057202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.034836, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053832, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.093093, "worst_return": -0.023422, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.036224, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00747, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036224, "worst_return": 0.036224, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.143, "volume": 50729, "typical_volume": 70314.55, "trend": 7.564433, "fair_value": 6.719753, "relative_strength": -19.918692, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.064306, "energy": 54.766422, "activity_lines": [ 7.0704, 7.114709, 7.258343, 7.378527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.259, "volume": 32716, "typical_volume": 67682.4, "trend": 7.544533, "fair_value": 6.725676, "relative_strength": -18.07917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.223939, "energy": 34.841035, "activity_lines": [ 7.1432, 7.128873, 7.249648, 7.358822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.451, "volume": 32010, "typical_volume": 66979.65, "trend": 7.5232, "fair_value": 6.733074, "relative_strength": -16.118015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.65434, "energy": 21.159114, "activity_lines": [ 7.269333, 7.182527, 7.260048, 7.352787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.547, "volume": 44499, "typical_volume": 65558.45, "trend": 7.501833, "fair_value": 6.741087, "relative_strength": -17.105731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.849497, "energy": 20.396959, "activity_lines": [ 7.386733, 7.251455, 7.281014, 7.354323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }