{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aa9fe8a1-4ecc-4104-9e10-90b4277c67f8", "symbol": "FDN", "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCHANGE TRADED FUND DOW JONES INTERNET INDEX USD DIS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.269, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.752, "architecture_energy": 49.929, "architecture_maturity": 21.46, "architecture_confidence": 80.242, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.67, "rotation_up": 58.87, "upward_expansion": 81.18, "deceleration": 51.61, "rotation_down": 20.14, "downward_expansion": 10.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 275.947333, 271.857273, 269.679476, 264.332344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 289.38, "trend_reference": 258.778667, "distance_from_trend": 0.118253, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 230.198269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.25709, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.918441, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.178257, "excess_performance": 0.052632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.118253, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000924, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.25709, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04705, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029184, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068066, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.178257, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.86473, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2419667, "relative_activity": 1.108207, "balance": 1.86473, "dry_up": 0.925106, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048776, "annualized_volatility": 0.239864, "from_high_reference": -0.014575, "from_low_reference": 0.289199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 258.778667, "fair_value_reference": 230.198269, "structural_low": 224.465, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.000486, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015373, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.102987, "worst_return": -0.086927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023709, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017376, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166966, "worst_return": -0.069336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.142015, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0103, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.229126, "worst_return": -0.231482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 258.256667, "fair_value": 227.496667, "relative_strength": -6.348009, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.30812, "energy": 24.334245, "activity_lines": [ 268.018, 269.036182, 264.622, 260.416581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 269.76, "volume": 1273133, "typical_volume": 2306360.3, "trend": 258.236333, "fair_value": 228.146154, "relative_strength": -6.780297, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.061747, "energy": 26.549057, "activity_lines": [ 269.155333, 269.055273, 265.718048, 261.158731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 259.14, "volume": 2302454, "typical_volume": 2193239.4, "trend": 257.787333, "fair_value": 228.706987, "relative_strength": -9.55724, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.722777, "energy": 19.023259, "activity_lines": [ 266.393333, 267.104182, 265.677429, 261.217032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 274.79, "volume": 2084281, "typical_volume": 2177434.25, "trend": 258.095333, "fair_value": 229.396538, "relative_strength": -4.839354, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.325631, "energy": 31.868835, "activity_lines": [ 269.284, 268.162727, 267.066286, 262.313978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 289.38, "volume": 2419667, "typical_volume": 2183407.4, "trend": 258.778667, "fair_value": 230.198269, "relative_strength": -2.918441, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.751928, "energy": 49.928745, "activity_lines": [ 275.947333, 271.857273, 269.679476, 264.332344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }