{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aaa2799f-724c-430e-afa2-cf317bc0a55f", "symbol": "ZEB", "name": "BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.868, "architecture_energy": 65.5, "architecture_maturity": 92.256, "architecture_confidence": 78.199, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.31, "rotation_up": 53.28, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.38, "rotation_down": 28.52, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.609205, 76.004809, 72.993421, 69.970572 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 76.550003, "trend_reference": 66.205575, "distance_from_trend": 0.156247, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.175624, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.732856, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.031223, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.286286, "excess_performance": 0.165865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.156247, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104856, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.732856, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100702, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.130312, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020576, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.286286, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.9312, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3760600, "relative_activity": 0.593967, "balance": 2.9312, "dry_up": 1.09671, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028305, "annualized_volatility": 0.155273, "from_high_reference": -0.02688, "from_low_reference": 0.660676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.205575, "fair_value_reference": 44.175624, "structural_low": 56.751933, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.017908, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": 0.00755, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.143194, "worst_return": -0.064357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.055054, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.01171, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.243922, "worst_return": -0.065905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.126467, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.058895, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.329566, "worst_return": -0.127681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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16.761461, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.347946, "energy": 80.996827, "activity_lines": [ 76.554117, 75.061375, 71.46424, 68.536398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.279999, "volume": 7587200, "typical_volume": 6726070.0, "trend": 65.602693, "fair_value": 43.880904, "relative_strength": 16.861744, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.718789, "energy": 67.169632, "activity_lines": [ 76.588186, 75.571475, 72.259631, 69.264294 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.550003, "volume": 3760600, "typical_volume": 6331325.0, "trend": 66.205575, "fair_value": 44.175624, "relative_strength": 13.031223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.868447, "energy": 65.499956, "activity_lines": [ 76.609205, 76.004809, 72.993421, 69.970572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }