{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aaaae9d5-8f3c-4689-be61-ba0987c7c87b", "symbol": "RIRA", "name": "Russell Investments Real Assets ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.252, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.007, "architecture_energy": 46.05, "architecture_maturity": 77.868, "architecture_confidence": 56.848, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.25, "rotation_up": 51.64, "upward_expansion": 76.8, "deceleration": 68.17, "rotation_down": 23.15, "downward_expansion": 5.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.395363, 21.359118, 21.264287, 21.103394 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.139999, "trend_reference": 20.796298, "distance_from_trend": 0.016527, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.293386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.222433, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.571895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071272, "excess_performance": -0.049149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016527, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047303, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.222433, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045719, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05045, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071272, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.170022, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5900, "relative_activity": 0.846485, "balance": 1.170022, "dry_up": 1.309182, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012988, "annualized_volatility": 0.094044, "from_high_reference": -0.031164, "from_low_reference": 0.214926 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.796298, "fair_value_reference": 17.293386, "structural_low": 19.851946, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.005, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.002464, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.061745, "worst_return": -0.064772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011405, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.004562, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.090566, "worst_return": -0.0952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.016356, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.029832, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.133636, "worst_return": -0.027408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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21.211263, 21.180733, 21.067288, 20.809452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.340391, "volume": 6600, "typical_volume": 8505.0, "trend": 20.406783, "fair_value": 17.128656, "relative_strength": -1.111144, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.571401, "energy": 50.923402, "activity_lines": [ 21.255263, 21.212768, 21.106866, 20.87633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.450033, "volume": 8400, "typical_volume": 8615.0, "trend": 20.513438, "fair_value": 17.169061, "relative_strength": -0.404732, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.288235, "energy": 56.179985, "activity_lines": [ 21.330423, 21.261994, 21.153372, 20.943637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.809999, "volume": 5300, "typical_volume": 7135.0, "trend": 20.627193, "fair_value": 17.211885, "relative_strength": 1.028211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.784093, "energy": 78.266645, "activity_lines": [ 21.507559, 21.370667, 21.231162, 21.027286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.389999, "volume": 16900, "typical_volume": 6810.0, "trend": 20.723122, "fair_value": 17.253799, "relative_strength": -0.422221, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.998423, "energy": 60.902232, "activity_lines": [ 21.494781, 21.388624, 21.261787, 21.076499 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.139999, "volume": 5900, "typical_volume": 6970.0, "trend": 20.796298, "fair_value": 17.293386, "relative_strength": -4.571895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.006611, "energy": 46.050156, "activity_lines": [ 21.395363, 21.359118, 21.264287, 21.103394 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }