{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aaace89b-4d76-4e95-b5e7-b9165f49a383", "symbol": "IYH", "name": "iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.698, "architecture_energy": 54.905, "architecture_maturity": 32.518, "architecture_confidence": 63.445, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.91, "rotation_up": 55.8, "upward_expansion": 80.68, "deceleration": 70.94, "rotation_down": 20.75, "downward_expansion": 9.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 1179.933333, 1174.354752, 1142.076324, 1130.650502 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1172.0, "trend_reference": 1123.126851, "distance_from_trend": 0.043515, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1827.523348, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.358695, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.874431, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.055526, "excess_performance": 0.110193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043515, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003426, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.358695, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.15339, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018744, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170279, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055526, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.785158, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17, "relative_activity": 0.016208, "balance": 0.785158, "dry_up": 1.561949, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023695, "annualized_volatility": 0.16369, "from_high_reference": -0.053301, "from_low_reference": 0.148451 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1123.126851, "fair_value_reference": 1827.523348, "structural_low": 1039.35022, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001232, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009879, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.043956, "worst_return": -0.800471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.04988, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.099875, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034341, "worst_return": -0.798206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.085207, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.109997, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.057045, "worst_return": -0.765878, 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.683907, "energy": 80.218675, "activity_lines": [ 1186.533333, 1157.070539, 1124.716379, 1120.633459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1172.0, "volume": 4028, "typical_volume": 1177.75, "trend": 1123.414994, "fair_value": 1873.960845, "relative_strength": 2.666097, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.942406, "energy": 87.249859, "activity_lines": [ 1186.266667, 1164.214688, 1130.381306, 1123.779875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1182.0, "volume": 2195, "typical_volume": 1227.25, "trend": 1124.090279, "fair_value": 1850.739751, "relative_strength": 2.762395, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.621863, "energy": 64.535357, "activity_lines": [ 1184.933333, 1171.037238, 1136.806104, 1127.559552 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1172.0, "volume": 17, "typical_volume": 1048.85, "trend": 1123.126851, "fair_value": 1827.523348, "relative_strength": 1.874431, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.69843, "energy": 54.905172, "activity_lines": [ 1179.933333, 1174.354752, 1142.076324, 1130.650502 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }