{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aaad5233-cfac-4fec-b876-abdb9de78863", "symbol": "002662", "name": "Beijing Fengjing Automotive Parts Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.401, "architecture_energy": 74.94, "architecture_maturity": 34.616, "architecture_confidence": 87.583, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.7, "rotation_up": 10.05, "upward_expansion": 17.47, "deceleration": 37.33, "rotation_down": 72.27, "downward_expansion": 90.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.173333, 3.32635, 3.47544, 3.60609 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.18, "trend_reference": 3.775365, "distance_from_trend": -0.157697, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.472048, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.291248, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.24105, "excess_performance": -0.24845, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157697, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043741, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084114, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009971, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.24105, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58698, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48676268, "relative_activity": 0.541965, "balance": 0.58698, "dry_up": 0.750831, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090929, "annualized_volatility": 0.3771, "from_high_reference": -0.298013, "from_low_reference": 0.067114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.775365, "fair_value_reference": 3.472048, "structural_low": 2.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.005556, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.00828, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.123601, "worst_return": -0.210938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.094288, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.002869, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.123707, "worst_return": -0.19202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.159021, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.05443, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.423791, "worst_return": -0.107438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009185, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020057, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061584, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062331, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02799, "active": false }, { 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3.626451, 3.733558, 3.818509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.35, "volume": 101116562, "typical_volume": 97839883.15, "trend": 3.882365, "fair_value": 3.471911, "relative_strength": -21.262662, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.061655, "energy": 28.807092, "activity_lines": [ 3.611333, 3.573962, 3.688125, 3.782765 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.23, "volume": 92737900, "typical_volume": 97687484.7, "trend": 3.862031, "fair_value": 3.472333, "relative_strength": -16.124172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.964419, "energy": 40.519648, "activity_lines": [ 3.486667, 3.50912, 3.634882, 3.740677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.03, "volume": 79500430, "typical_volume": 94485653.45, "trend": 3.830698, "fair_value": 3.471351, "relative_strength": -21.131559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.454487, "energy": 72.655316, "activity_lines": [ 3.297333, 3.418846, 3.567211, 3.686997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.2, "volume": 48827332, "typical_volume": 92007972.45, "trend": 3.803365, "fair_value": 3.471459, "relative_strength": -14.987237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.69609, "energy": 75.377118, "activity_lines": [ 3.217333, 3.37011, 3.520302, 3.646307 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.18, "volume": 48676268, "typical_volume": 89814467.5, "trend": 3.775365, "fair_value": 3.472048, "relative_strength": -19.291248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.401118, "energy": 74.939765, "activity_lines": [ 3.173333, 3.32635, 3.47544, 3.60609 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }