{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "aaafa1d1-c769-429c-863f-d6dc34dc2a43",
    "symbol": "AXP",
    "name": "American Express Company",
    "exchange": "MEX",
    "country": "MX",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^MXX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 81.994,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 13.723,
    "architecture_energy": 15.085,
    "architecture_maturity": 49.969,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.372,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 47.57,
        "rotation_up": 29.35,
        "upward_expansion": 37.57,
        "deceleration": 64.08,
        "rotation_down": 36.07,
        "downward_expansion": 23.91
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        5864.44069,
        5900.526764,
        5769.323304,
        5705.593526
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 5832.959961,
    "trend_reference": 5715.199072,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.020605,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 5046.514656,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.155839,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.455071,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.060248,
    "excess_performance": -0.005581,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020605,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.049026,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.155839,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027123,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.054551,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.134207,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.060248,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.578555,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 438,
      "relative_activity": 0.222657,
      "balance": 2.578555,
      "dry_up": 0.523092,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.035941,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.272239,
      "from_high_reference": -0.164051,
      "from_low_reference": 0.111444
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 5715.199072,
      "fair_value_reference": 5046.514656,
      "structural_low": 5248.092843,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.06184,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.068219,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.089458,
        "worst_return": -0.075529,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.008298,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.07854,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.282923,
        "worst_return": -0.214038,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.152742,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014573,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.451856,
        "worst_return": -0.15162,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.063825,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.069826,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.093647,
        "worst_return": 0.034003,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-08-11",
        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.063831,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2023-12-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.091546,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-01-05",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.922954,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.082467,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.094193,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.07937,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.066403,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.127042,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.050861,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.011465,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.07722,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-06-19",
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        "return": 0.092953,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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        "return": -0.0483,
        "active": true
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    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 2607.65,
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        "fair_value": 4988.614547,
        "relative_strength": -1.362429,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 5692.0,
        "volume": 741,
        "typical_volume": 2226.7,
        "trend": 5775.588476,
        "fair_value": 5007.472295,
        "relative_strength": -7.298734,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 35.223202,
        "energy": 55.661658,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 5850.0,
        "volume": 1687,
        "typical_volume": 2040.1,
        "trend": 5748.527278,
        "fair_value": 5027.086069,
        "relative_strength": -5.319574,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 29.957571,
        "energy": 31.287683,
        "activity_lines": [
          5912.427409,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 5832.959961,
        "volume": 438,
        "typical_volume": 1967.15,
        "trend": 5715.199072,
        "fair_value": 5046.514656,
        "relative_strength": -5.455071,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 13.722753,
        "energy": 15.084894,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}