{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "aab38949-b6ef-48cb-aa0c-71a6fb4a1858",
    "symbol": "000717",
    "name": "Guangdong Zhongnan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.",
    "exchange": "SHZ",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "399001.SZ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -34.293,
    "architecture_energy": 19.41,
    "architecture_maturity": 91.713,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.251,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.49,
        "rotation_up": 27.23,
        "upward_expansion": 19.42,
        "deceleration": 46.92,
        "rotation_down": 21.04,
        "downward_expansion": 53.42
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        2.2,
        2.165091,
        2.209333,
        2.291548
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 2.23,
    "trend_reference": 2.4,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.070833,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 2.538974,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121693,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -15.712255,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.152091,
    "excess_performance": -0.159491,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.070833,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.063963,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.121693,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.082582,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.157123,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.085768,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.152091,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.313099,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 90531902,
      "relative_activity": 1.126532,
      "balance": 0.313099,
      "dry_up": 1.05913,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.070024,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.339074,
      "from_high_reference": -0.266447,
      "from_low_reference": 0.137755
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2.4,
      "fair_value_reference": 2.538974,
      "structural_low": 1.96,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 36,
        "median_return": -0.011912,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006289,
        "regime_survival": 0.833333,
        "best_return": 0.374332,
        "worst_return": -0.169014,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": -0.027283,
        "positive_rate": 0.416667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.583333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.031888,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.805714,
        "worst_return": -0.273859,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.075002,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.079342,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.451429,
        "worst_return": -0.311024,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.048266,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005898,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.012245,
        "worst_return": -0.172861,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2023-12-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.082143,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-12-29",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
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        "return": 0.123506,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.100372,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "return": 0.195918,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "fair_value": 2.546731,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 2.25,
        "volume": 89969831,
        "typical_volume": 106369287.15,
        "trend": 2.412,
        "fair_value": 2.543013,
        "relative_strength": -11.450154,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -40.047793,
        "energy": 27.865621,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 2.23,
        "volume": 90531902,
        "typical_volume": 80363381.55,
        "trend": 2.4,
        "fair_value": 2.538974,
        "relative_strength": -15.712255,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -34.292662,
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          2.2,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}