{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aab39eca-0c14-4199-aec7-34b46a7f3b22", "symbol": "9957", "name": "Yieh United Steel Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.331, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.079, "architecture_energy": 46.104, "architecture_maturity": 17.21, "architecture_confidence": 95.96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.09, "rotation_up": 18.38, "upward_expansion": 9.08, "deceleration": 40.88, "rotation_down": 58.52, "downward_expansion": 87.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.851333, 5.901091, 6.049667, 6.118624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 5.8, "trend_reference": 6.204, "distance_from_trend": -0.065119, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.449551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.887398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.089482, "excess_performance": -0.530854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065119, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006247, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100713, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00756, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089482, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.525759, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1201851, "relative_activity": 0.333973, "balance": 0.525759, "dry_up": 0.303872, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07321, "annualized_volatility": 0.355229, "from_high_reference": -0.412361, "from_low_reference": 0.054545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.204, "fair_value_reference": 6.449551, "structural_low": 5.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.004992, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.01856, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.271028, "worst_return": -0.114537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.013975, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.047655, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.140351, "worst_return": -0.09068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033872, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033991, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.063665, "worst_return": -0.098018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010219, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014876, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008197, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068106, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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5.9, "volume": 809601, "typical_volume": 3725121.8, "trend": 6.241333, "fair_value": 6.4825, "relative_strength": -30.997407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.332148, "energy": 44.751445, "activity_lines": [ 5.938, 6.002909, 6.149381, 6.193806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.9, "volume": 1579390, "typical_volume": 3737627.75, "trend": 6.239, "fair_value": 6.472179, "relative_strength": -29.293384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.01897, "energy": 41.640329, "activity_lines": [ 5.921333, 5.973455, 6.119857, 6.171785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.84, "volume": 783273, "typical_volume": 3641966.35, "trend": 6.225, "fair_value": 6.461346, "relative_strength": -30.887952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.419513, "energy": 44.919498, "activity_lines": [ 5.888, 5.936364, 6.085095, 6.146043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 5.8, "volume": 1201851, "typical_volume": 3598648.15, "trend": 6.204, "fair_value": 6.449551, "relative_strength": -32.887398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.078681, "energy": 46.103872, "activity_lines": [ 5.851333, 5.901091, 6.049667, 6.118624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }