{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aab55d54-7909-4ecb-9864-447688a85505", "symbol": "ARLO", "name": "Arlo Technologies", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.476, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.484, "architecture_energy": 41.987, "architecture_maturity": 50.198, "architecture_confidence": 55.015, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.45, "rotation_up": 61.05, "upward_expansion": 68.31, "deceleration": 51.79, "rotation_down": 9.99, "downward_expansion": 13.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.217333, 13.668182, 13.549524, 13.573828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.23, "trend_reference": 13.508, "distance_from_trend": 0.12748, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.668974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.342118, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.228226, "excess_performance": 0.102601, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.12748, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016909, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026051, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042095, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.228226, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.941857, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7198451, "relative_activity": 1.194147, "balance": 1.941857, "dry_up": 0.942196, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090479, "annualized_volatility": 0.671048, "from_high_reference": -0.236209, "from_low_reference": 0.378281 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.508, "fair_value_reference": 12.668974, "structural_low": 11.05, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.00495, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.03819, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.40625, "worst_return": -0.133811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.025518, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.016893, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 1.434896, "worst_return": -0.229391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.319767, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.242542, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.567708, "worst_return": -0.44325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.169034, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.118227, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.28125, "worst_return": 0.012206, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074253, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.260779, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.195632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.543919, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.261654, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076743, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049671, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00919, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166167, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.233195, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057992, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029655, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021352, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131501, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.93, "volume": 5134484, "typical_volume": 5105029.1, "trend": 7.718667, "fair_value": 6.865705, "relative_strength": 47.840062, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"relative_strength": -21.097974, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.933236, "energy": 24.906368, "activity_lines": [ 12.903333, 12.958727, 13.382667, 13.421806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.31, "volume": 4631872, "typical_volume": 6447842.95, "trend": 13.446333, "fair_value": 12.607821, "relative_strength": -17.334895, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.248737, "energy": 19.360119, "activity_lines": [ 13.040667, 12.990364, 13.345952, 13.411419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.87, "volume": 4581260, "typical_volume": 6121369.95, "trend": 13.403333, "fair_value": 12.618654, "relative_strength": -18.996291, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.908354, "energy": 17.262534, "activity_lines": [ 13.005333, 12.977273, 13.278667, 13.374237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.72, "volume": 6307052, "typical_volume": 6086039.6, "trend": 13.453, "fair_value": 12.64109, "relative_strength": -7.868786, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.641886, "energy": 13.737247, "activity_lines": [ 13.599333, 13.290545, 13.392476, 13.459183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.23, "volume": 7198451, "typical_volume": 6028108.9, "trend": 13.508, "fair_value": 12.668974, "relative_strength": -7.342118, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.483707, "energy": 41.986955, "activity_lines": [ 14.217333, 13.668182, 13.549524, 13.573828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }