{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aac2e2b8-3391-43be-b1bb-487b5f2f20db", "symbol": "SBILIFE", "name": "SBI Life Insurance Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.534, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.536, "architecture_energy": 15.169, "architecture_maturity": 13.697, "architecture_confidence": 85.36, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.69, "rotation_up": 39.83, "upward_expansion": 34.79, "deceleration": 39.63, "rotation_down": 16.95, "downward_expansion": 40.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 1860.2, 1833.881816, 1828.232376, 1847.077415 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1855.5, "trend_reference": 1886.511511, "distance_from_trend": -0.016439, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1659.287066, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.118251, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.599297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069425, "excess_performance": -0.025716, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016439, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.118251, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042976, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.04599, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3891430, "relative_activity": 0.878349, "balance": 1.04599, "dry_up": 0.970115, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040959, "annualized_volatility": 0.270241, "from_high_reference": -0.128481, "from_low_reference": 0.091214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1886.511511, "fair_value_reference": 1659.287066, "structural_low": 1700.400024, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.017013, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.008854, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.125363, "worst_return": -0.112954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.140786, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.061628, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277362, "worst_return": -0.089652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033534, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.08278, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162128, "worst_return": -0.043404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.120172, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.066561, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.239181, "worst_return": 0.001164, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067411, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053013, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084259, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05693, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.1025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038989, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002773, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014323, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095569, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001101, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066199, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037386, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02177, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014081, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1275.944946, "volume": 3014133, "typical_volume": 5295818.9, "trend": 1189.997929, "fair_value": 1090.715122, "relative_strength": -1.539897, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.189929, "energy": 18.920094, "activity_lines": [ 1834.773332, 1811.789087, 1821.752376, 1850.671982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1882.0, "volume": 5378313, "typical_volume": 4505198.25, "trend": 1893.565727, "fair_value": 1655.757244, "relative_strength": 0.580769, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.335069, "energy": 18.178597, "activity_lines": [ 1856.473332, 1825.34727, 1826.200947, 1849.533268 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1855.5, "volume": 3891430, "typical_volume": 4430390.85, "trend": 1886.511511, "fair_value": 1659.287066, "relative_strength": -1.599297, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.535731, "energy": 15.16877, "activity_lines": [ 1860.2, 1833.881816, 1828.232376, 1847.077415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }