{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aac436eb-1d60-48c6-b5c3-62e8be50e2d8", "symbol": "RCAT", "name": "Red Cat Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.08, "architecture_energy": 59.213, "architecture_maturity": 24.701, "architecture_confidence": 89.401, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.99, "rotation_up": 13.61, "upward_expansion": 11.83, "deceleration": 40.37, "rotation_down": 67.25, "downward_expansion": 87.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.213333, 8.838727, 9.885524, 10.662172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.21, "trend_reference": 11.64, "distance_from_trend": -0.208763, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.160774, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.494942, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.547102, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.270784, "excess_performance": -0.458237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.208763, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036756, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.494942, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.41887, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255471, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097974, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.270784, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708026, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51639245, "relative_activity": 0.865876, "balance": 0.708026, "dry_up": 0.684926, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.251827, "annualized_volatility": 1.026089, "from_high_reference": -0.509585, "from_low_reference": 0.596187 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.64, "fair_value_reference": 6.160774, "structural_low": 6.705, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.034667, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.002834, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.2987, "worst_return": -0.272893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.091847, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.216324, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.222384, "worst_return": -0.325658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048328, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.235602, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.073232, "worst_return": -0.386839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036313, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003741, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.646988, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.223537, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.361373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023396, "active": false }, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.215312, "energy": 71.123028, "activity_lines": [ 8.989333, 10.025818, 10.785714, 11.366667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.64, "volume": 40469933, "typical_volume": 66374113.5, "trend": 11.777333, "fair_value": 6.065944, "relative_strength": -35.280393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.157904, "energy": 72.432025, "activity_lines": [ 8.360667, 9.507818, 10.401571, 11.098323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.53, "volume": 34859573, "typical_volume": 62210812.75, "trend": 11.723, "fair_value": 6.107832, "relative_strength": -36.282829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.974053, "energy": 72.956788, "activity_lines": [ 7.948667, 9.003455, 10.043714, 10.824301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.21, "volume": 51639245, "typical_volume": 59638146.6, "trend": 11.64, "fair_value": 6.160774, "relative_strength": -25.547102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.080289, "energy": 59.212889, "activity_lines": [ 8.213333, 8.838727, 9.885524, 10.662172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }