{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aac59398-e617-4266-a7e9-0638fa89c4c5", "symbol": "EKC", "name": "Everest Kanto Cylinder Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.572, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.995, "architecture_energy": 27.13, "architecture_maturity": 30.184, "architecture_confidence": 51.268, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.98, "rotation_up": 18.86, "upward_expansion": 20.59, "deceleration": 52.48, "rotation_down": 53.63, "downward_expansion": 43.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.533335, 112.374183, 113.727191, 113.251785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 112.68, "trend_reference": 112.94, "distance_from_trend": -0.002302, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 137.478344, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.18038, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.717441, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047104, "excess_performance": -0.003394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002302, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025931, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.18038, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08324, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082126, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047104, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.572949, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 857812, "relative_activity": 0.999992, "balance": 0.572949, "dry_up": 0.950213, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06299, "annualized_volatility": 0.327353, "from_high_reference": -0.281332, "from_low_reference": 0.248532 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 112.94, "fair_value_reference": 137.478344, "structural_low": 90.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.005327, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.001287, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.237342, "worst_return": -0.149818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.024371, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000586, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.438478, "worst_return": -0.293494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.113023, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.005156, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 2.003606, "worst_return": -0.47121, "sufficient": true }, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159285, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009929, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.163584, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124427, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": 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"trend": 113.274, "fair_value": 137.632094, "relative_strength": -7.463124, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.095445, "energy": 11.079529, "activity_lines": [ 113.116, 113.884001, 114.361619, 113.685441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 106.800003, "volume": 962346, "typical_volume": 870918.85, "trend": 112.927667, "fair_value": 137.478096, "relative_strength": -11.170445, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.116144, "energy": 33.236443, "activity_lines": [ 110.400002, 112.520183, 113.765858, 113.267764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.68, "volume": 857812, "typical_volume": 857818.85, "trend": 112.94, "fair_value": 137.478344, "relative_strength": -6.717441, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.995054, "energy": 27.129826, "activity_lines": [ 110.533335, 112.374183, 113.727191, 113.251785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }