{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aac83979-61d8-42c9-bca6-8331d94d204c", "symbol": "SVC", "name": "Service Properties Trust", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.566, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.096, "architecture_energy": 19.625, "architecture_maturity": 26.862, "architecture_confidence": 55.496, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.62, "rotation_up": 15.88, "upward_expansion": 13.93, "deceleration": 58.34, "rotation_down": 45.0, "downward_expansion": 59.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.305492, 8.398879, 8.301654, 8.459158 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.23, "trend_reference": 8.883996, "distance_from_trend": -0.073615, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.354268, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.551603, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.571615, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.246896, "excess_performance": -0.43435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073615, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.551603, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051627, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.275716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096336, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.246896, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.648323, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10920704, "relative_activity": 0.244201, "balance": 6.648323, "dry_up": 0.205921, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095489, "annualized_volatility": 0.631235, "from_high_reference": -0.444391, "from_low_reference": 0.46622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.883996, "fair_value_reference": 18.354268, "structural_low": 5.613072, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.036643, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.049591, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.425339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.086468, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.088016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217291, "worst_return": -0.294677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.184929, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.276757, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.280105, "worst_return": -0.382637, "sufficient": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -9.303748, "energy": 11.658333, "activity_lines": [ 8.626667, 8.505455, 8.297323, 8.637398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.551192, "volume": 9411702, "typical_volume": 44453458.2, "trend": 9.015566, "fair_value": 18.890017, "relative_strength": -24.846399, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.87369, "energy": 13.005134, "activity_lines": [ 8.638397, 8.525126, 8.301636, 8.605526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.46, "volume": 8721316, "typical_volume": 44526770.9, "trend": 9.009248, "fair_value": 18.712477, "relative_strength": -23.172218, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.269342, "energy": 11.05763, "activity_lines": [ 8.589651, 8.521831, 8.310947, 8.569683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.03, "volume": 7781535, "typical_volume": 44625015.75, "trend": 8.963882, "fair_value": 18.537692, "relative_strength": -26.471912, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.606623, "energy": 16.691609, "activity_lines": [ 8.396905, 8.437446, 8.291296, 8.506505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.23, "volume": 10920704, "typical_volume": 44720062.4, "trend": 8.883996, "fair_value": 18.354268, "relative_strength": -27.571615, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.095601, "energy": 19.625063, "activity_lines": [ 8.305492, 8.398879, 8.301654, 8.459158 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }