{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aacd1bfe-b796-4f96-aa63-2184bb33bf2b", "symbol": "DEMR", "name": "WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income UCITS ETF - Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.033, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.31, "architecture_energy": 31.151, "architecture_maturity": 62.594, "architecture_confidence": 82.233, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.38, "rotation_up": 34.93, "upward_expansion": 62.35, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 27.6, "downward_expansion": 21.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.233334, 32.354455, 31.969476, 31.299742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.540001, "trend_reference": 30.4135, "distance_from_trend": 0.06992, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.65244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268495, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.123597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132811, "excess_performance": -0.038081, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06992, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063397, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003614, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031236, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038302, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132811, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.645752, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28663, "relative_activity": 0.908905, "balance": 3.645752, "dry_up": 0.94943, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027847, "annualized_volatility": 0.136672, "from_high_reference": -0.022969, "from_low_reference": 0.281102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.4135, "fair_value_reference": 25.65244, "structural_low": 27.469999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008926, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.006719, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.060113, "worst_return": -0.018651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053489, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020789, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.138614, "worst_return": 0.009326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083526, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02548, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.102463, "worst_return": 0.01369, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.051389, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.050621, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173776, "worst_return": 0.035744, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016919, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032224, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096988, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00411, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00549, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024985, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01494, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04738, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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32.019182, 31.012667, 30.316247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 32.82, "volume": 711, "typical_volume": 14877.15, "trend": 29.542833, "fair_value": 25.294299, "relative_strength": -1.06591, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.498384, "energy": 76.353571, "activity_lines": [ 32.624667, 32.251273, 31.256262, 30.539893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.884998, "volume": 286092, "typical_volume": 27679.9, "trend": 29.751833, "fair_value": 25.372729, "relative_strength": -0.411433, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.461686, "energy": 67.05367, "activity_lines": [ 32.742666, 32.443545, 31.487571, 30.755516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.715, "volume": 51834, "typical_volume": 29757.0, "trend": 29.9105, "fair_value": 25.441992, "relative_strength": -2.482604, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.988021, "energy": 53.333807, "activity_lines": [ 32.404, 32.370727, 31.591381, 30.882172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.255001, "volume": 8806, "typical_volume": 29408.5, "trend": 30.092833, "fair_value": 25.508594, "relative_strength": -0.613149, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.664158, "energy": 43.954337, "activity_lines": [ 32.308667, 32.387636, 31.736048, 31.03343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.93, "volume": 30461, "typical_volume": 30512.65, "trend": 30.249333, "fair_value": 25.577472, "relative_strength": -2.20598, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.625419, "energy": 32.724071, "activity_lines": [ 32.160333, 32.319091, 31.831833, 31.151957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.540001, "volume": 28663, "typical_volume": 31535.75, "trend": 30.4135, "fair_value": 25.65244, "relative_strength": -3.123597, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.309628, "energy": 31.150704, "activity_lines": [ 32.233334, 32.354455, 31.969476, 31.299742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }