{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aad44659-2a64-4065-8b42-06e4a838f57c", "symbol": "BEC", "name": "BRC Asia Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 73.395, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.628, "architecture_energy": 53.73, "architecture_maturity": 9.65, "architecture_confidence": 73.335, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.29, "rotation_up": 18.22, "upward_expansion": 17.92, "deceleration": 46.75, "rotation_down": 68.96, "downward_expansion": 59.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.246, 4.298182, 4.404407, 4.424889 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.2, "trend_reference": 4.400763, "distance_from_trend": -0.04562, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.815036, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.491988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.26391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033641, "excess_performance": -0.121194, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04562, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028615, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.491988, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344736, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162639, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.265891, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033641, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.725779, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 347400, "relative_activity": 1.213582, "balance": 0.725779, "dry_up": 1.250437, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037729, "annualized_volatility": 0.205509, "from_high_reference": -0.130435, "from_low_reference": 0.262696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.400763, "fair_value_reference": 2.815036, "structural_low": 4.043909, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.023742, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029412, "worst_return": 0.018072, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.072226, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.038551, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102409, "worst_return": 0.042042, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.039277, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.0137, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.04241, "worst_return": 0.036144, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2023-07-28", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.407525, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027149, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.442732, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053798, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.099376, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": -13.935807, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.61643, "energy": 55.113505, "activity_lines": [ 4.307333, 4.393091, 4.469852, 4.450583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.31, "volume": 373500, "typical_volume": 297505.0, "trend": 4.389973, "fair_value": 2.778284, "relative_strength": -12.639265, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.480496, "energy": 47.994534, "activity_lines": [ 4.294667, 4.363091, 4.452934, 4.445933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.26, "volume": 392000, "typical_volume": 293225.0, "trend": 4.396207, "fair_value": 2.796826, "relative_strength": -14.148011, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.926719, "energy": 43.22968, "activity_lines": [ 4.276667, 4.332909, 4.431419, 4.437547 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.2, "volume": 347400, "typical_volume": 286260.0, "trend": 4.400763, "fair_value": 2.815036, "relative_strength": -16.26391, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.628437, "energy": 53.730142, "activity_lines": [ 4.246, 4.298182, 4.404407, 4.424889 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }