{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aad71bf7-b1e0-45ca-a186-31de79426d77", "symbol": "601688", "name": "Huatai Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.397, "architecture_energy": 15.788, "architecture_maturity": 29.947, "architecture_confidence": 68.45, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.43, "rotation_up": 17.36, "upward_expansion": 21.24, "deceleration": 60.26, "rotation_down": 40.0, "downward_expansion": 52.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.733334, 19.959637, 19.58681, 19.610022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.280001, "trend_reference": 20.087667, "distance_from_trend": -0.040207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.887978, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.141641, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.352508, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.160279, "excess_performance": -0.117075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035292, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.141641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028665, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063525, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066536, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160279, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.411484, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 319645442, "relative_activity": 0.855014, "balance": 0.411484, "dry_up": 0.954776, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067148, "annualized_volatility": 0.23777, "from_high_reference": -0.251262, "from_low_reference": 0.099202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.087667, "fair_value_reference": 16.887978, "structural_low": 17.540001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.005426, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.009988, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.326308, "worst_return": -0.134705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.056274, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.070709, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.419841, "worst_return": -0.168553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046388, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.046481, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.366498, "worst_return": -0.14439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.195389, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.104773, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.290488, "worst_return": -0.191309, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062803, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.134032, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044237, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067656, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012119, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065687, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042672, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094187, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071578, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04724, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100763, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.077992, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029693, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 15.41643, "volume": 723172069, "typical_volume": 303864982.6, "trend": 12.323414, "fair_value": 13.847367, "relative_strength": 25.290364, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"volume": 381625530, "typical_volume": 373408644.1, "trend": 20.458, "fair_value": 16.761399, "relative_strength": 0.803481, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.232094, "energy": 18.851404, "activity_lines": [ 20.267334, 19.902546, 19.438333, 19.723763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.4, "volume": 341875737, "typical_volume": 371122370.5, "trend": 20.373667, "fair_value": 16.809075, "relative_strength": 2.044173, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.156195, "energy": 20.258291, "activity_lines": [ 20.320667, 20.068364, 19.548191, 19.720022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.620001, "volume": 384617988, "typical_volume": 375248726.0, "trend": 20.231333, "fair_value": 16.849704, "relative_strength": -2.218153, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.338421, "energy": 10.714453, "activity_lines": [ 20.057334, 20.058182, 19.583619, 19.671398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.280001, "volume": 319645442, "typical_volume": 373848094.5, "trend": 20.087667, "fair_value": 16.887978, "relative_strength": -6.352508, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.397494, "energy": 15.78831, "activity_lines": [ 19.733334, 19.959637, 19.58681, 19.610022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }