{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aad8876a-7ee9-49da-b3ad-e3f9134aa6c0", "symbol": "600543", "name": "Gansu Mogao Industrial Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.005, "architecture_energy": 59.314, "architecture_maturity": 90.278, "architecture_confidence": 95.282, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.04, "rotation_up": 20.68, "upward_expansion": 10.3, "deceleration": 55.46, "rotation_down": 58.52, "downward_expansion": 81.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.734, 3.815455, 4.126952, 4.36871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.84, "trend_reference": 4.713, "distance_from_trend": -0.185232, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.367244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.284549, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.802158, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.319149, "excess_performance": -0.275945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185232, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.284549, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196434, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268022, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061716, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.319149, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.179582, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10194300, "relative_activity": 0.499065, "balance": 0.179582, "dry_up": 0.585601, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08754, "annualized_volatility": 0.325493, "from_high_reference": -0.432792, "from_low_reference": 0.156627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.713, "fair_value_reference": 5.367244, "structural_low": 3.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.001064, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.46875, "median_excess_return": 0.008216, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.648649, "worst_return": -0.146538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.017391, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.021687, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.501272, "worst_return": -0.236735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.075449, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.062678, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.276956, "worst_return": -0.341549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.663286, "energy": 80.307116, "activity_lines": [ 3.870667, 4.047636, 4.358905, 4.588817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.47, "volume": 13460501, "typical_volume": 22750496.7, "trend": 4.818, "fair_value": 5.388846, "relative_strength": -33.245567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.773017, "energy": 69.991567, "activity_lines": [ 3.728667, 3.906727, 4.252762, 4.497097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.75, "volume": 10612300, "typical_volume": 21916121.5, "trend": 4.762, "fair_value": 5.377179, "relative_strength": -27.385486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.054112, "energy": 62.909735, "activity_lines": [ 3.716667, 3.842909, 4.181857, 4.428194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.84, "volume": 10194300, "typical_volume": 20426787.55, "trend": 4.713, "fair_value": 5.367244, "relative_strength": -26.802158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.004999, "energy": 59.313514, "activity_lines": [ 3.734, 3.815455, 4.126952, 4.36871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }