{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aada5b0e-4694-4bff-9db9-637e752d3217", "symbol": "HWKN", "name": "Hawkins Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.747, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.895, "architecture_energy": 63.89, "architecture_maturity": 16.022, "architecture_confidence": 85.163, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.89, "rotation_up": 10.42, "upward_expansion": 13.39, "deceleration": 38.49, "rotation_down": 71.4, "downward_expansion": 89.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.422667, 139.49, 147.114778, 148.246681 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 129.91, "trend_reference": 148.5157, "distance_from_trend": -0.125278, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 116.109341, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.118859, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.973803, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030823, "excess_performance": -0.218276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125278, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015668, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.118859, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.430114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249738, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17151, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030823, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.782362, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 716175, "relative_activity": 0.887493, "balance": 0.782362, "dry_up": 1.073362, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112157, "annualized_volatility": 0.435893, "from_high_reference": -0.299309, "from_low_reference": 0.103884 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 148.5157, "fair_value_reference": 116.109341, "structural_low": 119.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013526, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018869, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.124239, "worst_return": -0.052414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.163314, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.134286, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.194519, "worst_return": 0.112929, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.25071, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.139208, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.490071, "worst_return": 0.143535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192415, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091993, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.214412, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139414, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010489, "active": false }, { 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-16.68331, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.000672, "energy": 44.483002, "activity_lines": [ 140.842667, 146.679131, 151.42007, 150.922663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 128.03, "volume": 1091588, "typical_volume": 844392.05, "trend": 149.427463, "fair_value": 115.619016, "relative_strength": -23.086601, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.634508, "energy": 59.652967, "activity_lines": [ 135.700667, 142.687091, 149.150094, 149.505872 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 129.91, "volume": 716175, "typical_volume": 806964.45, "trend": 148.5157, "fair_value": 116.109341, "relative_strength": -24.973803, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.89471, "energy": 63.889643, "activity_lines": [ 133.422667, 139.49, 147.114778, 148.246681 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }