{ "ticker": { "uuid": "aadd4ee8-958e-4451-862c-39bac0f66505", "symbol": "CCAP", "name": "Crescent Capital BDC Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.856, "architecture_energy": 20.823, "architecture_maturity": 60.761, "architecture_confidence": 82.696, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.22, "rotation_up": 29.59, "upward_expansion": 21.62, "deceleration": 42.59, "rotation_down": 28.08, "downward_expansion": 57.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.218667, 11.101067, 11.304987, 11.626526 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.77, "trend_reference": 12.1447, "distance_from_trend": -0.030853, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.623204, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.136033, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.992482, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.152161, "excess_performance": -0.339615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030853, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064977, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.136033, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098749, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199925, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152161, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.642589, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1072335, "relative_activity": 0.956812, "balance": 0.642589, "dry_up": 1.046959, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056794, "annualized_volatility": 0.360093, "from_high_reference": -0.192755, "from_low_reference": 0.11432 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.1447, "fair_value_reference": 13.623204, "structural_low": 10.562495, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.022091, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.009359, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.173709, "worst_return": -0.178751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009014, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.038465, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.099993, "worst_return": -0.138961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005726, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.225619, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059444, "worst_return": -0.158062, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.338702, "energy": 41.56223, "activity_lines": [ 10.992501, 10.989749, 11.546524, 11.939495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.05, "volume": 1260714, "typical_volume": 1115805.0, "trend": 12.410837, "fair_value": 13.642109, "relative_strength": -23.469312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.071085, "energy": 39.375157, "activity_lines": [ 11.025391, 10.972177, 11.467043, 11.845971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.84, "volume": 1481353, "typical_volume": 1141007.0, "trend": 12.312559, "fair_value": 13.633412, "relative_strength": -23.144796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.013529, "energy": 37.359121, "activity_lines": [ 10.979615, 10.953813, 11.373063, 11.744627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.93, "volume": 879066, "typical_volume": 1141242.95, "trend": 12.218004, "fair_value": 13.62668, "relative_strength": -22.40257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.181511, "energy": 35.452299, "activity_lines": [ 10.964, 10.950461, 11.295622, 11.65543 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.77, "volume": 1072335, "typical_volume": 1120737.85, "trend": 12.1447, "fair_value": 13.623204, "relative_strength": -19.992482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.856425, "energy": 20.823484, "activity_lines": [ 11.218667, 11.101067, 11.304987, 11.626526 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }